| In recent years,the world landscape is constantly changing,and the global economy is still confronted with the obstacles of rising trade protectionism in the process of development.Under such circumstances,all countries are actively promoting the establishment of bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements,which can promote trade by reducing the tariff and non-tariff barriers of each contracting party.It is against this background that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)was born.The RCEP was first initiated by ASEAN in 2012.After years of negotiations and consultations,It finally took effect on January1,2022.The entry into force of the RCEP means the birth of the world’s largest free trade area.The region’s GDP,population and foreign trade volume have reached about 30% of the world’s total.The establishment of the RCEP will have a positive and far-reaching impact on the economic development of the Asia-Pacific region.It will facilitate more frequent trade exchanges among member countries.While promoting the continuous economic growth of member countries,it will also play a pivotal role in the recovery of the world economy.Although China is a big manufacturing country,there is still a certain gap compared to those manufacturing powers in the world,especially in the aspect of high-tech manufacturing,China’s competitiveness in the international market is not strong.Therefore,in the 14 th FiveYear Plan and the Outline of the 2035 vision goal,China has proposed "deepening the implementation of the strategy of making China a strong manufacturing country".After the completion of the RCEP,all member countries(regions)will reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers in accordance with the provisions of the RCEP.In this context,what changes will happen to the foreign trade of China’s high-tech manufacturing industry? Especially in the face of competition from two manufacturing giants,Japan and South Korea,among RCEP member countries,will China’s high-tech manufacturing industry be impacted? In order to clarify the above issues,this thesis focuses on the high-tech manufacturing industry and studies the impact of RCEP clauses on China’s high-tech manufacturing industry in terms of trade.Based on the realistic analysis of the impact of RCEP provisions on China’s high-tech manufacturing trade,this thesis focuses on the description of the scale and structure of trade in high-tech manufacturing products between China and other RCEP members,and further calculates the competitiveness and complementarity of trade in high-tech manufacturing products between China and other RCEP members.Finally,based on the GTAP model and using the data in Tariff Commitment Table of Annex I of RCEP,six different simulation scenarios were set up,including the reduction of tariff barriers only and the reduction of both tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers.Under different simulation scenarios,the impacts of major countries(regions)on trade at the national level and China’s high-tech manufacturing industry were empirically studied.The results show that:(1)When the RCEP clause comes into effect,it has a significant positive effect on the real GDP,social welfare and terms of trade of most member countries,and this positive effect becomes more obvious with the expansion of the degree of trade liberalization.However,among all member countries,only China’s terms of trade deteriorated when only tariff barriers were reduced,while with the reduction of non-tariff trade barriers,China’s terms of trade began to improve.For countries and regions outside the region,the entry into force of the RCEP provisions will bring mainly negative impacts,which are reflected in the reduction of real GDP,the decline of social welfare and the deterioration of the terms of trade.In particular,the impact on the US is relatively obvious.But on the whole,the establishment of the RCEP is conducive to the development of the whole world and will have a positive impact on real GDP and social welfare of the whole world.(2)From the perspective of industry,the entry into force of the RCEP clause has a dual impact on China’s high-tech manufacturing industry.On the one hand,the import and export volume of most of China’s high-tech manufacturing products have increased significantly,and the import price has decreased while the export price has increased.On the other hand,domestic sales and output of most of China’s high-tech manufacturing products have declined,and the added value of most high-tech manufacturing products continues to decline.Finally,the thesis puts forward relevant suggestions for the conclusions of the state and the industry.First of all,China should strengthen talent training and build the core competitiveness of the brand.Secondly,we should expand domestic demand,promote the formation of "domestic circulation",and create favorable conditions for the development of our high-tech manufacturing industry.Then,we need to deepen cooperation with RCEP member states,especially with Japan and South Korea in high-tech manufacturing,to narrow the gap with them.Finally,we should strengthen cooperation with other free trade zones and welcome new members with open arms. |
