| RCEP is the largest free trade agreement at present.It has symbolic significance to the regional cooperation in East Asia.It can not only effectively promote the development of multilateralism and free trade,but also expand the development space of regional economy.In addition,RCEP can speed up the flow and layout of production factors in the region.RCEP includes developed and developing countries,as well as less developed countries.The diversified economic structure will help members give full play to the advantages of production factor endowment,further integrate and develop the global industrial chain and value chain.As for China,there is an important historical opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.This paper takes the impact of RCEP on the reconstruction of China’s manufacturing industry chain as the research object.And the paper is based on the theories of industrial chain,global value chain and the trade effect of regional economic integration.With GTAP 10.0 model,this paper simulates the macroeconomic impact of gradually reducing tariffs within 15 years after the formal implementation of RCEP on China’s GDP,terms of trade,import and export trade.It also subdivides China’s manufacturing industry into low-tech,medium and low-tech,medium and high-tech,and high-tech manufacturing industry to study the microeconomic impact,and further analyze the impact path of the implementation of RCEP on the reconstruction of China’s manufacturing industry chain.Firstly,this paper combs the relevant literature on industrial chain,value chain,RCEP,regional economic integration and industrial chain reconstruction under RCEP.Secondly,it introduces the theories of industrial chain,global value chain,regional economic cooperation and so on.Therefore,this paper has the following conclusions:(1)The upstream degree of the production of refined petroleum products industry has decreased gradually,while the production of computer and electronic optical products industry has increased.Besides,other 16 manufacturing industries has fluctuated from 2005 to 2014.It is necessary to guide the industry to migrate to the dominant link of the value chain.(2)From RCA index,China’s manufacturing industry as a whole has relatively strong international competitiveness in the international market.Industries with the advantages of traditional factor endowment have high international competitiveness.The international competitiveness of enterprises with high technology content is not very strong currently,so China’s manufacturing related industries should seize the opportunities brought by RCEP to improve their international competitiveness.(3)According to the static simulation of GTAP,the gradual reduction of tariffs after the entry into force of RCEP will have a significant impact on China.In addition to the deterioration of the terms of trade to a certain extent,China’s GDP,social welfare,import and export scale will be improved under the background of lower tariffs and increased trade liberalization.Under the influence of the expansion of China’s manufacturing industry and the acquisition of new value chain,RCEP has a certain impact on the expansion of China’s manufacturing industry.(4)On the one hand,the formal implementation of RCEP will complement the industrial advantages of its member countries and promote the improvement of the product quality of China’s traditional advantageous manufacturing industry,so as to improve the international competitiveness of China’s traditional advantageous manufacturing industry.On the other hand,it will accelerate the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industrial structure and increase the possibility of China’s manufacturing industrial chain reconstruction. |
