The Influence Mechanism Of The Division Of Labor In The Global Value Chain Of China’s Manufacturing Industry Under The RCEP Framework

Since the reform and opening up,China has successfully used the demographic dividend to undertake the industrial transfer of developed countries,gradually embedded in the global GVC dominated by developed countries such as the United States,Europe and Japan,and shaped China’s status as the "world factory".However,this production method based on processing and assembly still has various disadvantages,such as polluting the environment and enterprises being unable to master high-end core technologies.Obtain lower added value through low-end foundry.In January 2022,the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership" agreement(RCEP)officially entered into force for China.As the largest economy in RCEP,it is also the most important supplier and absorber of intermediate and final products for manufacturers in East Asia.This thesis takes RCEP as an example to explore its impact on the GVC position of China’s manufacturing industry.This thesis explores the following questions:(1)What is the current position of GVC in China’s manufacturing industry?(2)In what ways will the implementation of RCEP affect the GVC position of China’s manufacturing industry?.This thesis uses the GTAP model and the method of stepwise regression to study the impact of RCEP implementation on the GVC position of China’s manufacturing industry.This thesis first sorts out the relevant research on the impact of global GVC and RCEP on GVC,introduces the content of RCEP and analyzes the impact mechanism of RCEP implementation on the GVC position in China’s manufacturing industry.output and the impact of GVC position,and then compared and analyzed the simulation results with the situation where RCEP was not implemented,verified the role of RCEP in improving the GVC position in China’s manufacturing industry,and compared and analyzed the impact of RCEP implementation on members from the national level.Finally,the proposed theoretical hypothesis is verified by the method of stepwise regression,the heterogeneity analysis is carried out according to the manufacturing sectors of different technical levels,and the method of replacing the explained variables is used to regress for robustness testing.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows.(1)Through the analysis of the current situation,it can be seen that China’s manufacturing industry is still dominated by laborintensive production methods,and its advantageous sectors lie in low-tech and low-tomedium technology manufacturing industries.China’s paper products and metal products have the highest GVC position,while electronic products and textiles is the lowest.Although the GVC position of the high-tech manufacturing industry has been improved to a certain extent in the past period of time,China has not completely escaped the risk of "lowend lock-in" in the global value chain.(2)Through the simulation analysis of the GTAP model,compared with the situation where RCEP has not been implemented,the implementation of RCEP has improved the GVC position of most of China’s manufacturing sectors.The GVC position has also been slightly improved compared with the current level.Specifically,the implementation of RCEP has significantly improved the GVC position index of paper products,metal products and mineral products,but also reduced the GVC position of electronic products and textiles.In comparison at the national level,the U.S.and Japan have the highest GVC position in the manufacturing industry,while China and the ten ASEAN countries have lower GVC position.The implementation of RCEP has most significantly improved Australia’s GVC position and has had a negative impact on the U.S.GVC position.Obvious shock.(3)Through regression analysis,it can be seen that the implementation of RCEP can have a significant positive impact on the division of labor in China’s manufacturing value chain by reducing tariff levels,expanding market size,and increasing the amount of FDI absorbed.However,RCEP implementation also adjusts factor endowments It has a negative impact on China’s manufacturing GVC position.Combined with heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the optimization effect of resource endowment is significantly negative in high-tech manufacturing.Since high-tech manufacturing requires a high level of technological innovation,it is difficult to simply optimize endowment into an improvement in technological level in the short term,thus it has a more obvious negative impact on the GVC position in the high-tech manufacturing industry.Finally,the method of replacing the explained variable and re-regressing is used to test the robustness,which verifies that the regression result is robust.