Research On The Trade Effect Of China’s Entry Into RCEP

Since entering the new century,as the Doha Round negotiations have repeatedly fallen into difficulties and the multilateral trading system under the framework of the World Trade Organization(WTO)continues to falter,countries around the world are constantly exploring regional economic integration,attempting to build a bilateral or multilateral free trade system,and regional free trade agreements(FTA)have gradually become the mainstream option and rulemaking standard for international trade.The Asia Pacific region gathers the vast majority of the world’s population and economic size.Since the establishment of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)in 1989,the Asia Pacific region has successively realized multiple regional economic integration concepts,including the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area(FTAAP)proposed in 2004,the China Japan South Korea Free Trade Agreement proposed in 2013,the "China ASEAN10+1" community concept proposed by China in 2016 The Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP)in which the United States plans to participate,the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)actively led by Japan after the United States announced its withdrawal,and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),which officially entered into force in 2022.The implementation of RCEP is conducive to the promotion of economic integration in the Asia Pacific region.For China,the completion of RCEP has a positive effect on comprehensively promoting economic and trade exchanges between China and other member countries,making industrial trade between China and member countries closer,and contributing to the stable growth of China’s economy.In this context,exploring the trade effects of China’s accession to RCEP has important theoretical and practical significance.This article first reviews the relevant research literature on RCEP,rules of origin,and trade effects theory.Secondly,starting with the current situation of trade between RCEP member countries,using social network analysis methods,this paper examines the current situation of trade between China and other member countries,and successively analyzes the changes in regional trade network density,the centrality of each member country,and the structural characteristics of industrial trade between China and each member country during the twelve years before and after the official entry into force of RCEP.On this basis,based on the perspective of rules of origin(ROO),this paper empirically tests the correlation between the restriction effect index of rules of origin and China’s import and export trade.On the basis of calculating the restriction effect index of RCEP rules of origin,it proposes a general inference that RCEP rules of origin are loose rules of origin and that joining RCEP is beneficial to the development of China’s intra regional trade.Finally,the GTAP model is used to simulate and analyze the macroeconomic and industrial output changes of member countries under policy shocks.In the simulation study,this article sets the country(region)and industry category based on the actual situation and research needs.In the scenario setting,it fully combines the actual situation,including phased tax reductions in sensitive industries such as grain and crops,animal husbandry,meat products,and processed food,as well as the dynamic expansion scenario of including India and Russia in RCEP,further illustrating the positive trade effects brought about by joining RCEP to China.The research results show that:(1)Countries within the RCEP region have relatively close trade networks.Before 2022,the degree of intraregional trade ties gradually decreased,but the density of trade networks in 2022 increased significantly.China,Japan,and South Korea have long occupied the core position of the trade network,but some underdeveloped countries within ASEAN are difficult to integrate highly into the RCEP trade network in a stable state for a long time.From the perspective of current situation analysis,the industrial structure of China and most of the countries in RCEP is seriously converging,which is bound to lead to fierce market competition.The rules of origin of RCEP will make the selection of production locations of enterprises more reasonable,more conducive to the comparative advantage of member countries,and reduce the competitive pressure caused by industrial convergence;(2)Empirical research shows that the smaller the restriction effect index of rules of origin,the more beneficial it is for imports and exports,indicating that the looser the policy of origin is conducive to the development of foreign trade.The RCEP restriction effect index of rules of origin is 3.51,which is lower than the currently signed FTA in China,and is conducive to the overall trade benefits of China;(3)Through GTAP simulation of four different schemes,it can be found that as the level of intraregional trade liberalization increases,the economic effects of major economies in the RCEP region,such as welfare levels,GDP,and China’s industrial imports and exports to member countries,have improved.With the reduction of tariff and nontariff trade barriers in the region,the positive effects are more evident,and the trade creation effect is more significant;(4)As tariff and non-tariff barriers continue to weaken,China’s imports to countries within the region continue to increase,creating intraregional trade.As China’s imports to countries outside the region continue to decrease,trade outside the region has been transferred to within the region.Therefore,China has a trade creation effect within the region and a trade transfer effect outside the region.After successively absorbing India and Russia as member countries,China’s imports into the region have significantly increased,and the overall benefits have also improved,further indicating that member country expansion can continue to improve the trade level of countries within RCEP.Finally,based on the conclusions of the study,relevant suggestions are proposed on how to further improve the level of trade and expand trade openness after China’s accession to RCEP.After joining the RCEP,China should actively promote the expansion of member countries,actively participate in rulemaking,continue to promote the reduction of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers across the industry,accelerate industrial cooperation and structural upgrading,enhance competitiveness in global value chain cooperation,and achieve China’s transformation from a trading power to a trading power.