The Impact Of Trade Facilitation On The Duration Of China’s Agricultural Exports

Today,with the increasing development of global trade liberalization,the economic and trade relations between countries are getting closer and closer,the tariff level is gradually declining,and the role of traditional tariff barriers in international trade is gradually declining,while the intangible market access barrier,"trade non-facilitation",increasingly highlights its important role in international trade.Today,with the solid progress of the Belt and Road Initiative,China’s trade in agricultural products with countries in the Belt and Road region continues to grow,but can this development be sustained and how will trade facilitation affect the duration of agricultural exports between China and countries along the Belt and Road?Based on the above problems,this thesis firstly combs the relevant literature and theoretical basis of trade facilitation and export duration,and makes a theoretical analysis of the relevant influencing mechanism.Secondly,a comprehensive evaluation system was constructed through four first-level indicators,namely institutional environment,infrastructure,customs environment,information technology and support.The global principal component analysis method was used to estimate the trade facilitation level of 46 countries along the Belt and Road from 2008 to 2017.At the same time,the survival analysis method was used to estimate the duration of China’s export of agricultural products to countries along the Belt and Road.Finally,the discrete time Cloglog model was used as the basis for regression,to explore the impact of trade facilitation level of countries along the Belt and Road on the duration of Chinese agricultural exports and the mechanism of action.At the same time,through the regression of each level index,the effect of each trade facilitation index on the duration of Chinese agricultural exports was measured.The robustness test and heterogeneity test were also carried out.The results are as follows:First,during the sample study period,the level of trade facilitation of countries along the Belt and Road showed a steady increase year by year on the whole.Second,the duration of agricultural exports between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" is not short,with an average of 4.388 years and a median of 3 years.The survival rate was 70.3% for one year and 27% for nine years.Third,trade facilitation contributes to the extension of the duration of agricultural exports,and the degree of impact of this effect is also heterogeneous for countries with different degrees of processing of agricultural products and different social stability.Fourthly,mechanism analysis shows that trade facilitation extends the duration of agricultural exports mainly through reducing trade costs between China and countries along the Belt and Road.On this basis,this thesis puts forward policy suggestions such as strengthening customs cooperation among countries,actively developing infrastructure construction,vigorously promoting e-commerce technology and building data sharing platform,hoping to promote the development of agricultural trade between China and countries along the "Belt and Road",while realizing the trade potential between countries.