Effect Of Trade Facilitation On China's Export Duration

With multilateral and bilateral trade negotiations going on,regional economic arrangements have brought trade tariffs to very low levels.In the post-FTA era,trade benefits from tariff cuts are declining and WTO is actively seeking ways to continue to promote the liberalization of global trade.After over a decade of negotiation,Trade Facilitation Agreement(hereinafter referred to as "Agreement")protocol has been officially put into effect.The Belt and Road initiative is to maintain stable development of China's export trade and continue to open up in the new era.It is expected to improve the trade facilitation level of countries along the route and stimulate trade potential.This thesis draws on domestic and foreign literature to construct a comprehensive trade facilitation measuring system,which includes 22 indexes that cover port efficiency,customs environment,regulatory environment and service infrastructure.By calculating the trade facilitation level of 69 countries along the Belt and Road initiative,we find that trade facilitation level in Europe is high,especially for countries in Northern Europe and Western Europe.Trade facilitation level in Asian countries is generally low.In particular,trade in some Western Asian and Central Asian countries is still in a state of inconvenience and there is much room for improvement.At present,China's export trade relations along the Belt and Road initiative are not stable.This thesis analyzes China's export trade data along the Belt and Road initiative countries at the HS 6-digital level from 2007 to 2016,finding that the median time for export trade is only 2 years.Export duration shows obvious characteristics such as short duration and negative time dependence.China's export products frequently enter and exit the trade market,and trade relations fluctuate.Based on above analysis,this thesis discusses that to what extent "process that impedes trade",such as lengthy customs clearance documents and formalities,inefficiency of government departments and rent-seeking behaviors,etc.,as potential non-tariff barriers,will affect the stability of export trade relations.Estimation is based on HS 6-digital product level data using discrete-time risk Cloglog model.Empirical investigations reveal three key results.First,trade facilitation levels affect export duration differently across country groups.They increase duration of exporting in developing Asian economies and have little effect in developed European economies.Improvement of trade facilitation in Asian countries can largely improve the external environment of China's trade.Second,as for the effect of regional economic organizations,being part of ASEAN framework is found to lower the hazard rate while being part of EU higher the hazard rate.And neighboring with China will increase the hazard rate.Third,China's differentiated products have poor trade competitiveness in the European market.This thesis then makes several policy recommendations.First,China should participate in multilateral negotiations and cooperation and help to improve the infrastructure construction of Asian countries along the Belt and Road initiative.A higher level of trade-facilitated ASEAN Free Trade Area is needed to project its influence throughout the entire Belt and Road initiative area.The second is to participate in the establishment of more harmonized and unified international trade rules,and learn to apply the rules when negotiating with the EU or dealing with trade disputes.