| General Secretary Xi Jinping called for efforts to accelerate China’s transformation into a trader of quality and promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)through joint efforts in the report of the 20 th CPC National Congress.At such a historical stage,the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade faces many adverse impacts at home and abroad.In this context,"the Belt and Road" countries have become essential for China to fully implement the dual circulation strategy,expand opening-up and maintain diversified and stable international economic and trade relations.However,the level of trade facilitation in countries along the “ Belt and Road” is generally low,which limit the in-depth development of economic and trade cooperation between China and "the Belt and Road" countries.The agricultural trade has been especially impacted because of its ephemeral and dynamic nature,which makes it a crucial area of trade and economic partnership between China and the countries of "the Belt and Road" Initiative.The WTO has been encouraging the implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement since2017,which will help China strengthen cooperation with "the Belt and Road" countries,jointly remove trade barriers,release trade potential,and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.Especially under the problematic international situation such as the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world since 2020,the undercurrent of anti-globalization,and the risk of a global food shortage and mass hunger caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis.It is an important research topic to strengthen trade facilitation cooperation and promote agricultural products export to countries along "the Belt and Road" for reducing China’s agricultural trade deficit,stabilizing the international security situation,demonstrating the responsibility of a significant country,and enhancing China’s international influence.This study concentrates on the impact of China’s agricultural exports to " the Belt and Road" countries from the standpoint of trade facilitation based on completely absorbing and summarizing the research achievements.First,using the triangular analytic frame work of "trade scale,trade structure,and trade quality," A double heterogeneous multi-product enterprise model with productivity and quality production capacity is built under the guidance of the free trade theory,transaction cost theory,and regional economic integration theory.Moreover,six proposal hypotheses are put forth in this article,which also evaluates the theoretical effects of trade facilitation on China’s agricultural export trade scale,trade structure,and trade quality.Secondly,it explains and defines the concepts involved in the research of the thesis,such as " the Belt and Road" initiative,"the Belt and Road" countries,trade facilitation,agricultural products,types of agricultural products,and export quality,and clarifies the s tatistical caliber and research scope of the research.The trade facilitation level of the main countries along "the Belt and Road" and the quality level of China’s agricultural products exported to the countries are quantitatively measured,and the characteristics of China’s agricultural products exported to "the Belt and Road" countries are quantitatively analyzed by using statistical and comparative techniques.Thirdly,combined with the theoretical analysis framework and the description of the character istic facts,the econometric analysis model of the influence of trade facilitation on China’s agricultural exports to "the Belt and Road" countries is constructed.The gravity model based on random effects,the panel negative binomial regression and PPML estimation empirical model,the double fixed effect model,and the panel threshold effect model are respectively adopted to empirically test the holistic,heterogeneous,and non-linear effects of trade facilitation indicators on the scale,structure,and quality of China’s agricultural export trade.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis,hypothesis,and empirical analysis conclusions,this paper put forward policy thinking and suggestions.The results show that:(1)rade scale: the countries along "the Belt and Road" are essential markets for China’s agricultural exports.The scale of China’s agricultural exports to these countries is growing steadily.During the epidemic,the trade scale exceeded the previous peak,and considerable potential stil can be tapped.Regarding trade structure: from the perspective of the regional structure,China’s agricultural exports are concentrated in ASEAN,East Asia,Eastern Europe,and the Middle East,accounting for 83% of the market share of China’s agricultural exports to "the Belt and Road" countries.From the perspective of industrial structure,China’s agricultural exports are mainly crop products,accounting for more than 55% of the four categories of agriculture,forestry,husbandry,and fishery.Regarding the sp ecific variety structure,the number of varieties of China’s agricultural products exported to "the Belt and Road" countries remained at about 850,accounting for more than 90% of the total agricultural products exported by China.Garlic,apples,plywood,mushrooms,and other fungi consistently took the top spot among them.Regarding trade quality:The index of trade quality measured by the unit value method shows that the quality of agricultural products exported to "the Belt and Road" countries has an N-shape developmental trajectory.(2)In terms of trade facilitation.The level of trade facilitation of countries along "the Belt and Road" has been steadily improved,going through two dynamic development stages: The first stage is the level of medium-sized countries,and the second stage is that medium-sized countries drive the level of high-level countries and low-level countries to improve together.The level of trade facilitation had decreased slightly due to the epidemic’s impact.Trade facilitation accelerated in 2021,closing the gap with industrialized countries but maintaining a sizable absolute distance as the epidemic abated in several countries and epidemic control was relaxed.However,the sub-indicators of trade facilitation in countries along "the Belt and Road" are still significantly unbalanced.(3)Regarding the impact of trade facilitation on the scale of China’s agricultural exports,the trade facilitation of the main countries along " the Belt and Road" significantly enhances the scale of China’s agricultural exports.However,different regions show heterogeneity,among which the impact on the Americas and Cent ral Asia is the greatest.Regarding subdivided industries,animal husbandry has the most apparent enhancement effect by trade facilitation.Regarding specific varieties,fresh or dried fruit has the most significant impact on trade facilitation.China’s agricultural exports to the nations along "the Belt and Road" were harmed by COVID-19.At the same time,under epidemic prevention and control,the impact coefficient of trade facilitation increased significantly,indicating that the trade facilitation index plays a prominent and essential role in China’s agricultural exports.(4)The influence of trade facilitation on the export structure of China’s agricultural products: the level of trade facilitation of countries along "the Belt and Road" plays a significant role in diversifying rich agricultural products.Among the first-level indicators,infrastructure has the most apparent impact on the diversification of agricultural exports.The level of trade facilitation and the type of agricultural products exported to the regions along "the Belt and Road" show heterogeneity,which is only significant in Western Europe,the Middle East,and Central Asia.However,Africa,South Asia,and other regions are limited by the level of economic development,and the improvem ent of trade facilitation has no significant impact on the types of agricultural products exported.Regarding industrial structure,the export types of the fishery are most significantly affected by trade facilitation.Other non-edible processed products,edible processed products,and nut beverage crops are the most significant influences on specific varieties of the planting industry.(5)In terms of the influence of trade facilitation on the quality of China’s agricultural products export,trade facilitation of the countries along "the Belt and Road" has a significant inhibitory effect on the quality of China’s agricultural products export and is affected by the adjustment effect of the per capita GDP and market size index of the target market countries,showing a non-linear influence relationship.The inhibitory effect was noticeable before the per capita GDP and market size index broke through the threshold of $2451.85 and 0.06302,respectively.After breaking the threshold value,the inhibitory effect will be weakened and show a specific promoting effect.Based on the previous studies,in the context of COVID-19 and anti-globalization,this paper innovates from the perspective of agriculture,forestry,husbandry,and fishery.On the theoretical basis of the multi-product enterprise model with double productivity and quality production capacity heterogeneity,this paper uses various innovative methods such as principal component analysis,unit value method,fixed effect model,and negative binomial regress ion PPML and threshold effect model.Optimizing the measurement system of trade facilitation,redefining the range of agricultural products,and improving the statistical accuracy are taken as data innovation,trying to make a marginal contribution to the research of trade facilitation innovation.The policy implications of the research conclusions are as follows: First,China needs to strengthen trade facilitation cooperation with the major countries of the "Belt and Road" from the perspectives of infrastructure,regulatory environment,customs environment,e-commerce,and financial support,to lay a good trade facilitation foundation for China’s agricultural exports.Second,to comprehensively expand the scale of agricultural exports,China should start fr om itself to improve the standardization of agricultural products,tap the trade potential of underdeveloped countries and regions,develop the cold chain logistics of agricultural products,enhance the economic effect of FTA with "the Belt and Road" countries,and realize the diversification of export markets.Third,China should promote the building of agricultural industrialization,increase support for the export of vulnerable agricultural products,interactively monitor the demand structure of agricult ural products in "the Belt and Road" countries,and develop a comprehensive strategy to improve the trade structure to optimize the structure of agricultural products.Fourth,trade facilitation does not promote improving the quality of China’s agricultural exports.Instead,we should start with ourselves,actively guide,work hard on internal achievements,attract investment and wisdom,win the brand,and strive to promote the agricultural opening and cooperation between China and " the Belt and Road" countries to a broader field and more profound level. |
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