Study On The Trade Potential And Influencing Factors Of Manufactured Goods Between China And CPTPP Countries

Since the 21 st century,multilateral trade agreements under the WTO framework have stagnated and countries have started to adopt parallel measures of multilateral and bilateral negotiations to promote regional trade cooperation The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)have representative significance.The emergence of CPTPP has greatly promoted the development of new regional trade rules.The CPTPP implements zero tariffs,zero barriers and zero subsidies rules,eliminates all kinds of trade barriers and removes all unreasonable subsidies,which will have an important impact on the development of China’s foreign trade.As China is a major industrial country in the world,against the background of China’s application for CPTPP membership,exploring the potential of industrial manufactured goods trade between China and CPTPP member countries and its influencing factors is conducive to the study and prediction of trade trends in the new situation and provides a scientific basis for the implementation of China’s foreign trade policy.This paper analyzes the trade profiles of industrial manufactures between China and CPTPP member countries in terms of the trade scale,export market structure and product export structure of industrial manufactures during the period of 2002-2021.In the empirical part,a stochastic frontier gravity model and an inefficiency model are constructed to measure the trade potential of China’s manufactured goods with CPTPP member countries and analyze the main factors affecting the trade of manufactured goods.In the model building,the stochastic frontier gravity model selects the GDP of China and CPTPP member countries,the population of China and CPTPP member countries,Similarity of per capita income between China and CPTPP members,whether they share the same language,and whether they have bordering borders as explanatory variables;the non-efficiency model selects the volume of air cargo,the level of trade freedom,investment liberalization,government integrity and government spending,whether they are also WTO members or they have signed FTA as explanatory variables.The study shows that the total trade of industrial manufactured goods between China and CPTPP member countries is increasing and the market concentration is high.China’s GDP,the GDP of CPTPP member countries,the population of CPTPP member countries,whether they share the same language and whether they have bordering borders are positively related to China’s trade in manufactured goods with CPTPP member countries,while China’s population and the difference in GDP between China and CPTPP member countries are negatively related to trade.Trade is facilitated by improved infrastructure such as transportation,high government spending,an open economic environment,high trade freedom,and increased levels of regional integration.In addition,there is a large heterogeneity in trade efficiency between China and CPTPP members,and there is a large room for trade potential with most countries.Based on the above research,this paper proposes countermeasures to improve the trade efficiency of industrial manufactured goods between China and CPTPP member countries,to further exploit the trade potential and to promote the development of industrial manufactured goods trade.The main suggestions include:actively promoting the construction of FTA,expanding the cooperation region and deepening the cooperation content;strengthening infrastructure construction and improving trade facilitation;optimizing the export structure of manufactured goods and promoting the transfer of China’s manufacturing industry to the high-end of the global value chain;easing market access constraints and fostering the free flow of factors;optimizing the business environment and creating a favorable market environment.