The Study On Trade Potential Of Different Technological Content Industrial Manufactured Goods Between China And Kazakhstan

In 2013,President Xi Jinping’s visit to Central Asia for the first time proposed the construction of “the Silk Road Economic Zone” strategic vision,With the opening up of China and Kazakhstan,“the Silk Road Economic Zone” will undoubtedly promote the harmonious development of trade relations between China and Kazakhstan.In this favorable context,However,How to optimize the commodity structure between China and Kazakhstan trade is particularly important.Therefore,it is necessary to further study the trade potential between China and Kazakhstan.Exports of manufactured goods can reflect a country’s industrial structure,Study on the trade potential of China’s industrial products with different technical content in Kazakhstan,It plays an important role in the development of China and Kazakhstan.In this paper,firstly,by calculating the technical complexity of each manufactured product,the technical content of different industrial products is distinguished,The industrial products are divided into three categories: low,medium and high technology,On the basis of the above analysis,this paper analyzes the present situation of the trade of manufactured goods with three kinds of technical content in China and Kazakhstan.The study found that low tech exports of industrial products are the highest,but growth has slowed;Export growth rate of industrial output of medium technical are rising;High tech exports of manufactured goods is less,but it also shows an upward trend.On the import side,The largest proportion of China’s imports is low technology manufactured goods from Kazakhstan,but the growth rate decreased significantly;Import growth rate of industrial production of medium technology content is rising;High tech industrial products import is less,but there is an upward trend.There are many problems such as imbalance of import and export trade,unreasonable trade structure and so on.In addition,In this paper,we use the extended trade gravity model to study the export potential and import potential of different industrial products in China and Kazakhstan.It is found that the export potential of the industrial products with low technology content is relatively small,If it is not possible to retrain the new favorable factors,it is difficult to increase the trade development space.Most of China’s industrial production of medium technology content in Kazakhstan is trade development in 1996-2015 year.Therefore,it will undertake the enormous cost and risk to retrain the new factors to develop the export potentialof low and medium technology industrial products.By contrast,the actual export volume of China’s high-tech industrial products in Kazakhstan is lower than the theoretical export volume,this shows that China’s high-tech exports of high-tech products in Kazakstan still have very large space for development.A number of new favorable factors could lead to a substantial increase in export trade,the two sides only need to maintain the existing positive factors,and take advantage of opportunities.Lastly,analysis the influential factor of the trade between China and Kazakstan through VAR model and impulse response,the scale of two countries,output and CPI of manufacterd products play an accelerate role in the trade;SI and PI,sometimes,restrain the trade among two countries.Under this background,we point out the policy to accumulate the trade of manufactured products in China and Kazakstan.