| Since the establishment of diplomatic relationship between China and the United States in 1979,great progress has been made in politics,economy and culture,especially in foreign trade.In 2009,Chinese exports of goods to the United States reached 221.30 billion US dollars.By 2017,Chinese exports had reached 430.33 billion US dollars,which had an increase of 1.94 times.As the world’s largest economic power,the United States has become China’s biggest trading partner and has huge consumer demand and export market.Trade between the two countries,especially the manufactured goods trade has developed rapidly,by 2017 Chinese manufactured goods exports to the United States have accounted for 94.9% of the total amount of trade in goods exports to the United States,China’s exports of manufactured goods with different technical contents to the United States account for 85% of China’s total exports of manufactured goods to the United States,but also found that China’s manufactured goods exports to the United States mainly include textiles,clothing,shoes and hats with low technical,processing and finished products with middle technical,telecommunication equipment with high technology.And these main exports of manufactured goods have become the main objects of Sino-us trade friction,the scale of exports of low-tech and medium-tech manufactured goods is highly susceptible to U.S.dumping investigations and green barriers,while high-tech manufactured goods are the focus of the U.S.trade war against China in 2018.Therefore,under the background that manufactured goods become an important part of Chinese and American commodities trade and trade frictions occur frequently between the two countries,studying the export potential of manufactured goods with different technical contents from China to the us can play a certain role in the better development between China and the US.First of all,according to different technical contents,this paper divides the manufactured goods into low technology,medium technology and high technology,and studies the exported manufactured goods on this basis.It is found that the overall export volume and export growth rate of low-tech,medium-tech and high-tech manufactured goods are similar to the export trend of China’s export volume and export growth rate of manufactured goods to the United States,the export volume and export growth rate of the three kinds of manufactured goods are on the rise.The main export commodities of these three kinds of manufactured goods have remained largely unchanged over the past decade,low-tech content of manufactured products mainly export furniture,clothing,shoes,hats and textiles,medium-tech content of manufactured goods mainly exports of toys,office accessories,The export of high-tech manufactured goods is mainly dominated by electronic communication equipment and automatic data processor,and the export of these two kinds of goods accounts for more than 70% of the export of high-tech manufactured goods to the US.Secondly,Based on the classical gravity model,this paper introduces the degree of freedom of trade between exporting and importing countries,the degree of port technical facilities of importing countries,whether the free trade agreement is signed between importing and exporting countries,and whether the two countries border on each other,which forms an extended gravity model.Regression analysis was conducted using panel data from a total of 21 countries from 2009 to 2017,The correlation between the variables and China’s export volume is obtained.and through the regression results to calculate and analyse potential export trade of different technical manufactured goods from China to the United States.According to the results from the related factors,The factors included in the classical gravity model,namely,the economic scale of the importing country and the exporting country,and the distance between the two countries to the export trade of manufactured goods with different technical contents,are significant,and the economic scale is positively correlated with the export trade scale,while the distance is negatively correlated with the export trade scale.Other variables have different significance in the regression model of manufactured goods with different technical contents,the degree of freedom of trade between importing and exporting country,the degree of port technical facilities of importing country,whether the free trade agreement is signed between importing and exporting country is positively correlated with the trade scale of different technical content manufactured goods,whether the importing and exporting countries are bordering on each other is inversely proportional to the export scale of high-tech manufactured goods.According to the measurement results of trade potential,The export potential space of the medium-tech manufactured goods is the largest,the export potential space of the low-tech manufactured goods is the second,and the export potential space of the high-tech manufactured goods is the smallest.In the past decade,the export potential coefficients of manufactured goods with different technical contents were relatively stable,ranging from 0.8 to 1.2,belong to trade pioneering,means that there is a certain amount of trade space.We can continue to maintain the existing positive factors,reduce the trade obstacles,and actively explore new positive factors to promote the realization of potential trade through various ways.Finally,Based on the analysis of China’s export status and trade potential of manufactured goods with different technological contents to the United States,this paper puts forward corresponding policy Suggestions,including: Explore positive factors to promote the realization of trade potential;To promote the added value and competitiveness of manufactured goods through technology and provide policy support to key industries;We should improve the risk management,strengthen consultation and cooperation between the two countries and enhance our capacity to respond to changes in the trading environment. |
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