| During the process of rapid urbanization,affected by the siphon effect of big cities,some cities have began to shrink into the predicament,faced with population loss and real estate market downside risks.Urban shrinkage will bring about problems such as weak urban economic growth,and social problems such as the loss of high-quality talents and the aggravation of the aging population will further impact the real estate market.Research of urban shrinkage is helpful to scientifically understand the definition and characteristics of urban shrinkage,and provide reference for decisionmaking of urban "smart shrinkage" management.Besides,the analysis of the influence mechanism of urban shrinkage on economic and social variables is conducive to a more comprehensive grasp of the various risks brought by urban shrinkage.In particular,the influence mechanism of urban shrinkage on real estate price is of great practical significance to promote the housing market regulation.This thesis first completes the current situation and measurement analysis of urban shrinkage.Based on population,economic and nightlight data of prefecture-level and county-level cities,this thesis analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of shrinking cities.Then,the paper uses Stata software to perform spatial metrological estimation of the panel data of 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2019.The direct and indirect effects of urban shrinkage on real estate price are discussed,and the differences of the effects of urban agglomeration with different degrees of urban shrinkage are analyzed through the heterogeneity study.Finally,I test the influence mechanism of industrial upgrading,human capital level and investment in fixed assets on the impact of urban shrinkage on real estate price through the spatial econometric model.Results are as follows:(1)Urban shrinkage significantly reduces real estate price,and there exists spatial spillover effect;(2)The shrinkage of the surrounding cities will have a negative inhibitory effect on the real estate price of city;(3)There are regional differences in the impact of urban shrinkage on the real estate price.In the Northeast urban agglomeration with more serious urban shrinkage problems,the indirect effect of urban shrinkage on the housing price does not exist;(4)When the integration degree of urban agglomeration is high,urban shrinkage has both direct and indirect effects on housing price;(5)Industrial upgrading and human capital level weaken the effect of urban shrinkage on the decline of real estate price;(6)When investment in fixed assets is relatively high,the strengthening effect of urban shrinkage on real estate price decline is more obvious.According to the conclusion,this thesis puts forward the suggestions:(1)Explore the differentiated urban shrinkage governance path to conform to the characteristics of urban development;(2)Build a people-oriented urban development path and improve our capacity for refined planning and governance;(3)Monitor real estate price changes to ensure that regional housing prices achieve a reasonable growth linkage;(4)Drive urban transformation through industrial innovation and upgrading to attract the inflow of resource factors;(5)Increase the investment in urban human capital,enhance the attractiveness of urban talents,and promote the coordinated and healthy development of city and real estate market. |
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