Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Product Trade Network Of Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

After the end of the COVID-19,military conflicts broke out between many countries,the tide of world anti-globalization was rising day by day.The international situation was very complex.At the same time,more and more countries have joined in the construction of the Belt and Road to jointly create a peaceful and stable business and trade environment in the Belt and Road region,which has brought new trade opportunities and broader trade markets to China’s agricultural trade.It is worth noting that with the accession of more and more countries,the trade relations between countries in the Belt and Road region have become more frequent and in-depth,and the intricate trade relations between them constitute a huge trade network.In this huge trade network,disputes and conflicts are inevitable.Therefore,we need to use relevant theories and technologies to grasp the trade relations and trade characteristics between countries in the Belt and Road agricultural products trade network.Therefore,we need to master the following information: the structure and characteristics of agricultural trade network from 2011 to 2020,the dynamic characteristics of trade network scale,the position of the Belt and Road countries in the trade network,the influencing factors of the Belt and Road agricultural trade network,and the trade strategies of different market entities.Using the classification method,this paper analyzes the status and characteristics of agricultural trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road from 2011 to 2020 from multiple perspectives.The results show that the agricultural trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road generally presents a "W" shaped development trend.As far as the region is concerned,the trade volume between China and countries along the line has increased,and Southeast Asia remains the largest trade area.In terms of all kinds of goods,the trade volume of all kinds of goods between China and the countries along the way has also increased,but the composition of the market has changed.In addition,this paper also uses tools such as Ucinet(complex network analysis software)and Gephi(network visualization software)to build agricultural product trade networks with no right and direction from 2011 to 2020.Then it analyzes the characteristics and evolution rules of the trade network structure from three aspects:the overall characteristics(trade density,number of nodes),centrality(relative access,feature vector centrality),and core-edge structure.The results show that the trade network of agricultural products along the Belt and Road has been growing in this decade,but the growth rate of nodes and trade relations has slowed down.At the same time,the trade density of agricultural products in the Belt and Road region is becoming stronger,but the trade flow is too concentrated.The import and export trade volume of agricultural products in Northeast Asia,China and ASEAN accounts for more than 60% of the total import and export trade volume.From the comparison chart of Gephi’s core and marginal structure,we can find that the core countries of agricultural products trade have a relatively stable status and a stable number,while the status of marginal countries has risen.In the process of analyzing the influencing factors of the structure of agricultural products trade network,the article selects some influencing indicators from four perspectives of economic differences,geographical differences,cultural differences and institutional differences,and uses the QAP regression method to compare the trade networks of the agricultural products trade along the Belt and Road that have no right to have a direction with those that have a right to have a direction,It also makes a comparative analysis of the influencing factors of the change of agricultural product trade network structure from 2011 to 2020.The results show that in the trade network,factors such as economic scale gap,the existence of a common border,the existence of a common official language,and political stability will have a significant impact on the trade links between countries,and can expand the trade flow between countries.At the same time,the same variable has a greater impact on the establishment of trade relations than trade flows.Finally,in view of the problems existing in the agricultural trade of China and the Belt and Road,and in combination with the QAP empirical results completed by Ucinet,seven policy recommendations are provided for the development of the agricultural trade of the Belt and Road at present: strengthen agricultural investment and optimize agricultural structure;Strengthen brand building and increase the added value of agricultural products;Increase policy support and improve infrastructure;Develop trade channels and optimize transport structure;Improve the level of science and technology and strengthen the training of talents;Expand opening to the outside world and attract foreign investment;Deepen regional cooperation and strengthen agricultural trade cooperation.