Agricultural Products Potential Between China And The Countries Along The Silk Road Economic Belt

The ancient Silk Road is a trade route in continents across Asia, Europea and Africa, and can be a representative trade channels of the agricultural product such as silk, tea, spices,fur and so on. In September 2013, H.E. Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China,visited Central Asia and delivered a speech on “Promote Friendship between Our People and Work Together to Build a Bright Future ”at Nazarbayev University, and proposed to build a "Silk Road Economic Belt". There is no doubt that the ancient Silk Road Trade of agricultural products will! embrace the best opportunity in the great rejuvenation.Different countries have different economic levels of development,and diffenrent agricultural resource endowment also, so there is huge trade potential with countries along economic belt.According to the status that unbalance in argricultural trade,effection of trade barriers and maket access restrictions frequently,and import trade cost higher and higher, the agricultural product trade is in serious situation.Facing the trade protectionism from western countries,the agricultural product trade with nations along Silk Road Economic Belt will be another choice for China.We believe that measuring the trade potential,analyzing potential enflencing factor and putting forward realizing potential suggestion will have great theoretical value and!practical significance.This article based on the gravity model and stochastic frontier approach and combined with new new trade theory, and also based on the existing research results to construct the general analysis framework of "the relationship between China and the countries of Economic Belt along the Silk Road in agricultural products trade potential" which include four research parts called "state and evolution", "theory deduction and potential measurement",! "influencing factor",and "potential realization and policy suggestion".In order to investigate agricultural products import and export trade flow and potential between China and the Silk Road economy belt along the national from 1995 to 2014, we analyze the regional differences of Silk Road economic belt core area, region and expand area by using the new SITC code. In recent years, The results showed the export of agricultural products in China has basically returned to the highest level before the financial crisis, while imports are still under the influence of the domestic economy and is still in a downward path. Considering the import of agricultural products and land intensive agricultural products, the significance of the import of agricultural products is worth being revaluated.To measure agricultural product trade potential between China and the countries of the Silk Road Economic Belt,the paper establishes an extended gravity model, selecting the optimal model to estimate the absolute value of importers and exporters’ trade potential; and judging the trade potential between China and along countries based on trade potential trade index. The results show that the classical gravity model has a better consequence, which indicates that the recognition of China plays a negative role in export trade, that is, the factor of largest consumer market is inhibiting the trade. According to this result, advice that China should distinguish related countries based on the different situation, and focus on improving the low potential countries, safeguard the trade potential of the country in order to avoid this type of recession in the country to trade with the huge trade risk.Considering the limitation of gravity model,the article further the research of the trade potential in stochastic frontier way which can measure the optimal trade potential of agricultural products in natural conditions and analyzes trade efficiency and influence factors at the same time. The research indicates that the efficiency of China’s import-export trade on agriculture products is increasing. On the other hand, the non-efficiency trade is the main factor on the different level of trade and trade potential between countries. In addition, China and Russia, Uzbekistan, France and other countries import trade efficiency is higher, and with India, Pakistan, Iran and other countries have to enhance the import trade potential space, while the trade potential of the country with Russia, India and other countries have the highest value.By way of exploring the efflencing factors of trade potential measurement,the paper constructs a gravity model encompassing the institutional quality with micro basis based on CES utility function, to investigate the impact of the government’s stability, trade freedom, financial freedom and other 16 kinds of system quality on trade potential, and thus determines the impact of the system quality in the system on the Silk Road Economic belt. According to the results, it shows that the parameter of institional quality is very significant and China prefer to better institional quality. A quite unexpected situation is that the corruption control of the trade is significantly negative, which may be related to the economic belt and political freedom.In order to explore the way of trade potential relization, this paper examines China’s margin of export trade on agricultural products along the Silk Road Economic Belt, and uses the stochastic frontier approach to measure the trade potential, and decomposes the two marginal contributions to the future growth potential. The results showed that the intensive marginal occupied the main part of the export trade of agricultural products in China and the countries along the Silk Road. And the more and more along the core area of the national trade, the expansion of the marginal is more obvious; the more and more along the country’s national expansion area trade, the more obvious the intensive.Finally, according to the theoretical research and empirical analysis, we put forward the trade potential policy recommendations of agricultural products based on China’s Silk Road economic belt. And also suggest to strength the export and import trade; improve the system environment and its quality; actively expand the potential of agricultural products trade, reduce trade non efficiency factors, optimize the potential of agricultural products trade ways and pay anttion to agricultural trade margins.