Analysis On Trade Network Structure Of Agricultural Products Between China And Countries Along “The Belt And Road” And Its Influencing Factors

With the gradual expansion of opening up,China’s agricultural products trade not only achieves rapid growth,but also faces pressure from both domestic and international aspects.At the same time,the promotion of “the Belt and Road” has brought new opportunities of China’s agricultural products trade and big potential for the development.However,countries along “the Belt and Road” are numerous,and the intricate trade relationship between them constitutes a huge trade network.Compared with the traditional analysis method,the trade relationship between countries can be better analyzed from the perspective of trade network,and the status of countries in the trade network can be identified.In addition,facing the countries with different characteristics in the trade network,we should not adopt the indifferent strategy of agricultural products trade,but implement differentiated trade strategies according to market characteristics and needs.Therefore,how to accurately grasp the agricultural products trade network structure of “the Belt and Road”? What is the position of countries along “the Belt and Road” in the trade network structure? Which countries in the trade network structure share the same plate characteristics? What factors affect the structure of trade network? How to adopt effective strategies for the markets of different characteristics? To solve these problems,it is necessary to study the intrinsic characteristics,evolution rules and influencing factors of agricultural products trade network structure between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” from the perspective of trade network.In order to find out the current situation of agricultural products trade,this thesis analyses and judges the current situation and characteristics of agricultural products trade from three aspects: overall,regional and category,and uses RCA index,TCI index,TII index and GL index to measure the competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural products trade.The results show that: on the whole,the trade intensity are becoming stronger and stronger,and the trade deficit shows an N-shaped trend.From a regional perspective,the total volume of agricultural products trade is promoting,and Southeast Asia is still the biggest trade market.From the perspective of the categories,the trade volume of various kinds of agricultural products is increasing continuously,and the market structure has changed.From the perspective of comparative advantage,there are obvious differences in the comparative advantage,and trade complementarity is stronger than competitiveness.In order to judge the structural characteristics of agricultural products trade network,this thesis respectively constructs unweighted,non-trade oriented trade network and weighted,non-trade oriented trade network of agricultural products.It analyses the inherent characteristics and evolution rules of trade network structure from three aspects: overall characteristics,centrality and core-periphery structure,and divides the trade network into four major plates,to judge the types and characteristics of each plate.The results show that: The scale of agricultural products trade network has been expanding,but the growth rate has slowed down.At the same time,trade connections are strengthening,but trade flows are too concentrated.The core members of the trade network are stable,while the marginal members are increasing.And the trade network is divided into four parts,each of which has different characteristics.In order to analyze the influencing factors of the agricultural products trade network structure,this thesis chooses the influencing indicators from four aspects of economy,geography,culture and system,and uses QAP regression method respectively in unweighted trade network and weighted trade network,to analyze the influencing factors of the changes of the agricultural products trade network structure in 2000-2016.The results show that: economic disparities,common borders,common official languages,and being in WTO in trade network can significantly promote the trade relations building among countries and expand trade flows.In addition,within a given range of changes,the impact of variables on trade relations building is greater than that on trade flows.Finally,this thesis puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of agricultural products trade: optimizing the trade structure and enhancing competitiveness.Playing a core role and adopting differentiation strategies.Improving trade facilitation and reducing transaction costs.