Analysis For Present Status And Development Potentiality About Agricultural Trade Of China And RCEP Partners In The Belt And Road

In recent years,the progress of WTO negotiations has been slow,and local trade protectionism has resurfaced.At the same time,all countries in the region began to seek economic integration measures and carry out regional economic cooperation.In this background,as China's trade relations with neighboring countries have further strengthened,Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)has formally shown on the stage of history.Due to the factors endowment、economic structure of RCEP countries,and the particularity of agricultural products themselves,agricultural products trade plays an important role in the negotiation process of RCEP.As one of the largest importers of agricultural products in the world,China's imports are not stable,and the volatility is large.Under the new situation,agricultural trade is of great significance to China.The proposal of "One Belt and One Road" initiative and the establishment of RCEP are great opportunities for the healthy development of China's agricultural trade.The "One Belt and One Road" has proposed new cooperation concepts for various countries.The RCEP countries are the target areas for the development of agricultural trade.As of 2016,the total trade volume of agricultural products between China and RCEP countries reached US$12.933 billion,accounting for 40%of the total trade volume between China and the world's agricultural products.This article selects agricultural trade data of China and RCEP other member countries from 1992 to 2016 in the UnComtrade database,and classifies them according to the SITC Rev.3 standard,and analyzes them from four dimensions:country,time,category,and import-export.The first part of the analysis of trade volume leads to the following conclusions:(1)Australia and ASEAN are the two fastest-growing markets during the observation period.Although the amount of growth is large,the annual growth rate is extremely unstable;(2)In the total trade volume of agricultural products between China and RCEP countries,export growth is relatively stable,imports accounted for most of the amount,and the amount of imports led to fluctuations in the total trade volume;(3)The top five of the total trade volume in categories is 05,03,23,24,and 26,respectively,accounted for 59.45%of the amount per year.During 1992-2000-2008-2016,there were 6 types of agricultural products that always had a trade surplus,most of them belonged to category 0 agricultural products,and the surplus was getting larger and larger;8 kinds were always in deficit and concentrated on category 2 agricultural products.The second part introduces the five indicators of Trade Dependence,International Market Share,Trade Competition Advantage index,Revealed Comparative Advantage index and Trade Complementarity index.The following conclusions are drawn:Australia,New Zealand,India,and ASEAN all have strong complementarities with China in terms of agricultural products,of which New Zealand,ASEAN,and Australia have the greatest potential.The last part is empirical analysis.Through regression analysis of panel data mixed effects,this paper holds that China and RCEP countries have a great potential for agricultural trade development.The "One Belt and One Road" strategy can promote the development of agricultural trade between China and other countries.