Study On Competitiveness,complimentarily And Trade Potential Of Sino-Russian Trade In The Background Of "The Belt And Road Initiative"

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to severe sanctions against Russia by the western countries.The Sino US trade friction has exposed the US’s attempt to contain China’s development in an all-round way.COVID-19 has given rise to the gloom of the global economy which is slow in the process of recovery.The complicated and changeable international environment and the constant geopolitical factors of conflict mean that the demand for "tug of warmth" in China and Russia is further enhanced.It indicates that China Russia bilateral trade will have broader development potential.In terms of actual development,China Russia bilateral trade has exceeded the 100 billion mark for three consecutive years since 2018,reaching US $107.77 billion in 2020.The "one belt,one road" initiative has provided a focal point for deepening cooperation between the two countries.The cooperation between the two countries in energy,basic products,raw materials,machinery and equipment,transportation and other fields has been continuously strengthened,which has laid a solid foundation for the deepening development of bilateral trade.However,it also highlights problems such as the low proportion of trade volume and the fragile trade structure.Therefore,how to one side "one belt,one road" initiative,fully utilizing the competitiveness and complementarity of bilateral trade,promoting bilateral trade development and stimulating trade potential,has become an important issue in the development of Sino Russian trade.Based on the problem orientation,the author finds that the dynamic research on the trade potential between China and Russia is insufficient,and the research on the estimation of the trade potential between China and Russia is still insufficient after combing relevant literature.Therefore,this paper studies the trade competitiveness,complementarity and trade potential of the two countries.By analyzing the current situation of Sino Russian trade,it is found that the development trend of Sino Russian trade is good,the trade volume is growing steadily,and the trade cooperation potential is huge,but there are still some problems,such as single structure,small investment scale,low added value of products and regional trade friction;Taking the trade data one from one belt,one road and the other side as the boundary,the Sino Russian trade is competitive and complementary in 2007 and 2019.Then,through the establishment of stochastic frontier trade gravity model,this paper analyzes the trade efficiency between China and Russia,and comes to the conclusion that the trade efficiency value of China’s export to Russia is always at a low level(between 0.106 and 0.203),and always at the bottom of 33 trading countries.The trade efficiency value of imports was higher than that of exports(between 0.288-0.4).It indicates that the trade potential between the two countries is huge.The theoretical average of the expansion and growth space of export is as high as 642.79%,and that of import is 205.95%,indicating that the import and export trade potential of China and Russia needs to be further tapped.Finally,based on the "Belt and Road" initiative,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for optimizing Sino Russian trade from the perspectives of increasing cooperation,optimizing trade structure,improving trade environment and giving play to regional advantages.