| China has entered a new era of socialism.As the economy has shifted from high-speed development to high-quality development,people’s living standards have been continuously improved,and the demand for agricultural products has also shifted from quantitative satisfaction to safety and health.High-quality fresh agricultural products are more and more popular among consumer’s favorite.There are many kinds of agricultural products and strong timeliness.Cold chain circulation is an important guarantee for the quality of agricultural products.However,from the current point of view,the development of cold chain logistics of agricultural products is still unbalanced and insufficient.Analyzing and forecasting the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products can effectively avoid excess or insufficient supply capacity of cold chain logistics of agricultural products,maximize the development benefits of cold chain logistics of agricultural products,improve the competitiveness of the agricultural product industry in the region,ensure the quality of agricultural products,reduce the loss of agricultural products and It is of far-reaching significance to meet the living and consumption needs of urban and rural residents.In order to further promote the development of agricultural cold chain logistics in Jilin Province,this paper analyzes the development status,demand status and existing problems of agricultural cold chain logistics in Jilin Province.According to supply chain management theory,gray system theory and supply and demand balance theory,the literature Research method,grey correlation method and grey GM(1,1)prediction method,from the perspective of demand,determine 6 kinds of agricultural products that are closely related to the cold chain logistics of agricultural products,namely fruits,vegetables,meat,aquatic products,eggs and milk Based on the statistical data from 2011 to 2020,combined with the data on the cold chain circulation rate of related agricultural products,the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Jilin Province was calculated.With the help of previous research results and the current development status of agricultural cold chain logistics in Jilin Province,19 requirements are selected from five aspects: regional economic development level,human factors,transportation capacity,cold chain support conditions,and sustainable development level of cold chain logistics.Influencing factor indicators,the main factors affecting the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Jilin Province were extracted by using the grey relational method.At the same time,the paper selects the grey GM(1,1)model to predict the demand for agricultural cold chain logistics in Jilin Province in the next five years and conduct error testing to analyze the development trend of agricultural cold chain logistics demand in Jilin Province.The development of the industry provides a quantitative reference basis.Through grey correlation analysis,it can be seen that the level of economic development is the most relevant factor affecting the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Jilin Province.The impact of supporting conditions and human factors on the cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Jilin Province is relatively weak.According to the grey forecast GM(1,1)model,the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Jilin Province is increasing year by year.According to the above research conclusions,combined with the development status of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Jilin Province,from the overall planning of cold chain logistics of farm products,enhance transportation capacity,strengthen the infrastructure construction of cold chain logistics of agricultural products,improve the informatization and technology of logistics industry To improve the level of standardization and standardization,vigorously develop third-party cold chain logistics enterprises,strengthen the cultivation of agricultural products cold chain logistics talents,and put forward relevant suggestions for promoting the development of agricultural cold chain logistics in Jilin Province. |
PDF Full Text Request