Study On Demand Forecast Of Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics In Jinpu New Area Of Dalian

Since 2010,the State Council has issued Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Policies and Measures to Promote the Healthy Development of the Logistics Industry,Medium and Long Term Plan for the Development of the Logistics Industry,Development Plan for the Cold Chain Logistics of Agricultural Products and other documents,proposing to vigorously develop China’s domestic and international cold chain logistics of agricultural products.Relying on its location and logistics industry advantages,Jinpu New Area in Dalian has become the hub of cold chain logistics for agricultural products at home and abroad,and has built the largest cold chain logistics base in China.Considering the early stage of the agricultural products cold chain logistics has the characteristics of high investment and operation cost in order to further promote Jinpu New Area agricultural cold chain logistics industry development,promote Jinpu New Area agricultural cold chain logistics resources effectively configuration as well as the coordination and balance of supply and demand,need to Jinpu New Area agricultural cold chain logistics demand prediction research.First of all,based on the analysis,summed up the current agricultural cold chain logistics demand forecasting research results both at home and abroad,discusses the meaning and measurement of agricultural products cold chain logistics demand indicators,and then through the forecast method than choose grey-regression prediction model has a problem of small sample processing and prediction precision is high,and the research target of this article.Secondly,combining with the Jinpu New Area agricultural cold chain logistics development present situation and the demand analysis,the Jinpu New Area agricultural cold chain logistics demand is divided into five modules,also found that agricultural products cold chain logistics problems,to choose Jinpu New Area agricultural cold chain logistics demand forecasting index and influencing factors of index provides the basis.Again,through the analysis of Jinpu New Area agricultural cold chain logistics demand structure will demand forecasting index subdivided into five types,and summarize the possible factors influencing the demand of agricultural products cold chain logistics,and combining with the different factors will affect the classification of source of demand,and demand forecasting model combined constitute the five sets of index system,grey correlation analysis,Factors with low correlation were excluded.Finally,SPSS and MATLAB software were used to establish a gray-multiple linear regression prediction model,and then the original data of the five index systems were put into the prediction model to predict the demand for agricultural products cold chain logistics in Jinpu New Area of Dalian from 2020 to 2030.The predicted value of the demand for agricultural products cold chain logistics in Jinpu New Area of Dalian was obtained after the prediction results were summarized.Analyzes the forecast results and puts forward suggestions and countermeasures that are beneficial to the growth of agricultural products cold chain logistics demand in Jinpu New Area,Dalian.