An Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of China’s Only Child’s Fertility Intention

According to the data of the seventh national population census,by 2020,the national total fertility rate will reach 1.3,below the 1.5 fertility warning line,the birth rate will be 8.52 ‰,and the natural population growth rate will hit a new low after1978.Due to the acceleration of population aging and changes in population structure,China has made timely adjustments to its fertility policy.From the "single two child" policy in 2013 to the "comprehensive two child" policy in 2015,and then to the "three child policy" in 2021,the fertility policy has gradually been relaxed.Although positive policies have a certain stimulating effect on fertility,population growth has only experienced a brief rebound,and in recent years,population growth has shown a downward trend.The negative growth phenomenon of China’s population in 2022 has been widely valued by all sectors of society,and the pressure on fertility borne by society is gradually increasing.At present,the academic community has conducted in-depth research on fertility issues,but there are relatively few research results on the fertility intention of only children.Individual fertility intention has a certain predictive effect on future real fertility behavior.Therefore,analyzing the fertility willingness of people of childbearing age is an effective method to understand future population changes in China.The current situation of low fertility levels in China has attracted widespread attention.At present,the majority of people of childbearing age in China are those born in the 1980 s and 1990 s.This group of childbearing age groups shows a trend of low fertility willingness,and their fertility willingness and behavior will have an impact on China’s fertility level in the coming decades.This article reviews relevant literature and elaborates on the relationship between fertility intention and behavior from a theoretical perspective,as well as the mechanism of their mutual transformation.The willingness to have children directly reflects the concept of reproduction,and is also a desire and demand for reproduction.However,the willingness to have children and reproductive behavior are not the same.At this stage,the reproductive age group is influenced by various factors such as economy and society,as well as family and other factors.They have certain differences in the actual number of children they have and their willingness to have children.This study also used an ordered logistic regression model to empirically study the factors influencing the fertility intention of only children.The regression results of the model show that the nature of registered residence,the only child,the education level,age,marital status and the number of family residents have a greater impact on the fertility desire of the only child.After controlling other variables,the older the only child,the stronger the fertility desire.It is worth mentioning that the nature of registered residence significantly affects fertility willingness,and fertility concepts and gender preferences in urban and rural areas are also different.Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and accelerating population aging in China,the high cost of urban living,as well as the continuous rise in education,healthcare,and housing prices,have led to an increasing pressure on living and employment.As a result,only children not only face expensive parenting costs but also bear the burden of supporting the elderly,thus suppressing their willingness to have children and even weakening their fertility potential.In addition,due to the aging age structure of China’s population and the increasingly obvious trend of population aging,the number of only children in China will continue to increase in the future.Therefore,it is considered to assist families of childbearing age nationwide to alleviate the pressure of childcare costs,strengthen support from childcare institutions,and provide birth subsidies,which is conducive to improving the fertility problem of only children.In the future,the willingness of only children in China to have children will have a significant impact on social and economic development.Although there are many factors that can affect fertility behavior,most only children express their desire to have more children in terms of fertility willingness.It remains to be seen whether this expectation will translate into an increase in actual birth levels.This article believes that China needs to build a childbearing friendly society from a macro perspective,with a sound childbearing security system and measures as the premise,and humanistic guidance as assistance to enhance the willingness of only children to have children.At the micro level,it can improve family development capabilities,protect women’s legitimate rights and interests in marriage and work,promote the formation of a harmonious parenting atmosphere and a reasonable division of labor mechanism within the family,and then enhance the willingness of only children to have children.