Study On The Influencing Factors Of Family Fertility Willingness From The Perspective Of Expected Utility

China’s urban and rural fertility rate continues declining.The fifth(2000)and sixth(2010)census data show that China’s total fertility rate has respectively dropped to 1.22 and 1.18.2017 is the compensatory birth peak year for the universal two-child policy,but the total fertility rate in that year was only about 1.22(born more than 11 million),far below the expected 1.97.The policy constraints are reduced,and the fertility rate is more able to reflect the true family’s endogenous fertility willingness.Based on this background,this paper uses CGSS data to study Chinese family fertility motives and influencing factors from a micro perspective.Based on the micro-family economics foundation,this paper constructs a theoretical model of the expected utility perspective based on the economic attributes of children.It is assumed that the family decides to give birth and input costs during the birth decision-making period,and gains the child’s economic utility and insurance utility during the pension return period,so that the husband and wife have a stable source of consumption throughout the life cycle.These four factors are highlighted in the theoretical framework: the financial investment which can replace the children’s expected economic return,the family support,the family economic level,and the level of the couple’s education.To verify the impact of these four factors on family fertility willingness,this paper is based on the 2015 China Comprehensive Social Survey(CGSS)data,using the ordered logistic model,with the number of desirable children to be the explained variable,with pension finance Investment(including pension insurance and wealth management investment),family support,family economic level(including annual household income,housing area,subjective economic level),husband and wife education level to be explaining variables,with family demography,sociology and other characteristics to be controlled variables,with geographical,urban and rural areas,age to be classified variables,empirically analyse the factors affecting family fertility willingness.The study found that the families in eastern China,in urban,the substitution effect of pension insurance is more obvious,but for the families in central region,in the post-80 s and later show that there is a less significant income effect.Financial investment reflects more of the income effect,and in eastern families,urban families,and in families with no minor children the influence is more obvious.Families who recognize their children’s support are willing to have more children,and it is more pronounced in the post-60 s,but reversed in the post-80 s.Family income is negatively correlated with the number of desirable children,but there is a less significant positive correlation in urban households and post-80 households.The larger the housing area,the more the number of children,but the families in the western region and in the countryside are not significant.The higher the subjective economic level,the higher the willingness to give birth.In addition,religious beliefs have a significant positive impact on family fertility willingness,and there is a significant positive correlation between happiness and the number of desirable children.Lastly,the family of child-bearing age is deeply influenced by their parents.The educational level of the mother of the interviewee has a significant negative impact on the child-bearing willingness of the childbearing family.The research results of this paper have important policy implications.Advocating traditional family values,reducing the immediate cost of fertility and education for children,reducing the impact of fertility on the mother’s career development,and improving the happiness of the fertility couple will all contribute to the recovery of fertility.