| Seven general data show that the proportion of the elderly group over the age of 60 in China is 18.7%,at the same time,the total fertility rate in China is only 1.3,compared with the intergenerational replacement level of 2.1,the gap is large.Faced with the dual challenges of increasing aging and the continued downturn in the total fertility rate,on May 31,2021,the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to deliberate on the Decision on Optimizing Fertility Policies to Promote Long-term Balanced Population Development.The "Decision" pointed out that in order to further optimize the birth policy,the implementation of a couple can have three children policy and supporting measures.This is another major change in China’s family planning policy after 2014 and 2016,which means that China has officially entered the "three-child" stage from "single second child" and"comprehensive second child",and also shows that it is imperative for China to actively cope with the aging of the population and improve the fertility rate of people of childbearing age.In addition,the proportion of the floating population in China is relatively high due to the continuous development of reforms,openings and urbanization.Seven census data show that at present,China’s floating population has 375.82 million people,representing 26%of the national population,compared to 16.5%of the six general data in 2010,the proportion of floating population in ten years increased by 9.5%,and most of this part of the population is in the fertility boom period,and its fertility concept,fertility willingness and fertility level are closely related to China’s demographic structure and total fertility rate.Therefore,how to improve the fertility willingness of this part of the population is worthy of attention.This paper uses CMDS 2016 data,the data was cleaned and matched with the minimum wage of the district(county)where the floating population is located and the macroeconomic and real estate database of the National Information Center to obtain the average house price level of the city where the floating population is located,and finally obtained an effective sample size of 15,006.In this paper,the research object is located in the migrants,and the construction of the core explanatory variable "job quality" is generated by equal probability average weighting,and then the IVprobit model is used to explore its effect on the intention of the migrants to have a second child.On this basis,in order to correct the endogenous problems existing in the model,the minimum wage of the district(county)where the floating population group is located is selected as the instrumental variable,the ivprobit model is further regressed,and the empirical results are tested from five angles:re-measuring the job quality,redefining the willingness to have children,redefining the age of childbearing age,using the extended regression model(ERM),and the false clustering of robust standards to a higher level.In addition,this paper analyzes heterogeneity from five perspectives:gender,whether she is an elderly pregnant woman,whether she buys a house in the place of influx,the urban agglomeration of the place of influx,and the type of migration.Finally,this paper further discusses the mechanism of job quality affecting the willingness of the migrants to have two children.Specifically,the research in this paper finds:(1)The results of probit regression and ivprobit regression show that the job quality has a significant role in promoting the willingness of the migrants to have two children,that is,the income effect is dominant;(2)The job quality has a stronger effect on the willingness of men,non-elderly pregnant women,those who have purchased a house,and the migrants whose migration type is inter-city to have children;(3)When the inflow is in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the job quality has a significant negative influence on the intention of the migrants to have two children;(4)The job quality further affects the willingness of floating families to buy houses in the place of influx by affecting their willingness to have two children.In summary,as the main force of the fertile period,paying attention to the fertility intention of this part of the population is of great practical importance for improving China’s overall fertility rate and optimizing China’s population structure.Based on this,this paper recommends that the state should focus on improving the job quality of the migrants groups and play its role in promoting the willingness of the migrants to have two children.In addition,this paper finds that for the migrants,whether they intend to buy a house in the migrant area is the mechanism of job quality affecting their second child’s fertility intention.This shows that "settling down" is an important support for floating populations to improve their willingness to have children,and this article recommends that the state is supposed to further propose practical and effective measures to reduce the living costs of floating populations.For example,local governments should adhere to the basic positioning that "houses are used to live in,not to speculate",and further regulate housing prices so that more migrants can truly "live" in the inflow area;or to provide housing subsidies to floating families who have two children,which will effectively alleviate the psychological pressure and housing purchase expenditure of floating populations to have two children,thereby improving the willingness of this part of the population to have two children.Therefore,from the perspective of job quality,this paper explores the effect on the migrants’ fertility intention of the second child,which has important theoretical and policy significance for further releasing fertility potential and coping with population aging. |
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