| Recently,Demographic ageing and low birth-rate will be more and more serious.According to the 7th Census Survey,the number of people of working age in China is declining and the aging process is accelerating.At present,Chinese overall birth rate is low,which is an important factor of impeding Chinese economy and society.Although the“universal two child” has been implemented and has played a certain effect,but the intention of have the second child is still low.Meanwhile,the rising housing price has become one of the big social issues.The influence of the housing price on the people’s fertility intention has been widely paid attention to by the scholars at home and abroad.The study intends to take urban young people of child bearing age as the research object and to study the impact id rising housing prices on having the second child of them through the methods of “price-utility” Comparison and the “quality-quantity” substitution.From the aspect of squeezing effect,it mainly includes: residential area restriction,displacement effect and the “responsibility-cost” effect based on the actual situation of Chinese men buying marriage house.As for the “wealth effect”,it can be divided into“already” and “not yet” two categories.Then,the correlation between the two-child policy of urban families and housing prices in China will be tested by using the survey data of CGSS2018 and Probit model in this thesis.The results show that: firstly,the increase of housing price will generally reduce the willingness of urban families to have the second child;Secondly,the subdivision results show that the squeezing effect of each region is greater than that of the wealth effect,and the negative effect of east is higher than that of the midland and west;thirdly,the rise of housing price has a negative effect on the willingness of urban young people of childbearing age who haven’t a house and those who own a house to have the second child,and this negative effect increases with the decrease of land area.While for the urban young people of childbearing age who own multiple houses,the change of housing price has no obvious effect.On this basis,how the "responsibility cost" effect affects the willingness to have a second child is also analyzed by an empirical study in this thesis.The results show that families with one boy can adjust the parent’ raising cost via the “responsibility cost”,even inhibit the willingness to have the second child via the housing price.Based on the sequence theory of “fertility intention selection”,the samples of unmarried families are removed and the robustness tests are conducted for each interval.The conclusion of this study can be used for reference for the economic development of our country.In order to improve the implementation efficiency of the universal two-child policy and alleviate the problem of the aging and the excessive sex ratio of the population,some relevant policy suggestions are put forward in this thesis.For example,increasing the supply of housing and enhancing the fertility desire of the families of young couples of childbearing age;Increase housing subsidies to reduce the impact of housing prices on the birth of a second child;Promote "common ownership housing" and "rental housing";Raise the level of resident income,narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. |
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