Fertility Intention And Determinant Factors Of The"Two-child Policy For Couples One Of Which Has No Siblings"

Strict family planning policy during urban residents hasn’t been made obvious change during the past 30 years since it was wrote into basic national policy in 1982. And China’s fertility rate keeps decreasing and has been under 2.1 since 1992. To improve fertility rate and ensure healthy development of population with a low fertility rate, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee made an important decision on family planning policy. Then "Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings" was implemented overall the county until the end of 2014. According to previous fertility intention survey, the desired birth for the second child is very strong, however, the fact is that there is large gap between fertility intention and fertility behavior after one-year implementation. Since there is close relation between fertility intention and fertility behavior, it would be great help for predicting the population of new-born babies and future population development if we could examine the fertility intention of the target population of the new family planning policy.Using the data of Nanjing fertility intention survey of all the target population of the new family planning policy, this study focuses on the basic demographic characteristic, the desired birth for the second child and determinant factors of the target population. This study uses the theory of economic fertility, the theory of proximate determinants of fertility. This study uses analytical method such as Descriptive Statistics and Multiple Linear Regression. The results of this study are:(1) the target population is 62,423 couples in Nanjing, and the majority of them is "after 70" and "after 80". What’s more, there are different population distribution among the 11 administrative areas, which is more in urban areas and less in rural areas. The proportion definitely wanting a second child is at a low rate with only about 20%, the opposite intention is 37%, almost twice of the wanting population. Most of the target population plan to give a birth in 2015,2016 & 2018. After comparing with fertility intention and fertility behavior in Nanjing, there is large gap between them, and mostly due to economic reasons. (2) the fertility desire for the second child is decreasing with the increasing of couple’s age and the first child’s age. The couples with child between 4 and 6 years old prefer to give birth to the second child, while the ones with child older than 10 years old choose not to give birth again. The target population with registered residence of Nanjing prefer to give birth to the second child than the population with no registered residence of Nanjing. The target population who already have a child prefer to not giving birth to the second child than the one with no child. The target family which the wife has no siblings have stronger desire for a second child than the one which the husband has no siblings. (3) the fertility desire for the second child is decreasing with the increasing of area economic development.