| Hydroelectric engineering is generally located in high mountains and valleys.Accidents occur frequently due to inconvenient traffic and construction characteristics of multi-stage and multi-process.Therefore,emergency management for accidents is imperative.Emergency capability assessment,as an important part of emergency management,is of great significance to effectively carry out emergency decision-making and rescue work,so as to control and reduce the consequences of accidents.This paper focuses on the situation of incomplete evaluation information in hydroelectric engineering accidents,for combining with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy theory,the emergency capability assessment model has been established and validated.The main contents are as follows:Firstly,considering the characteristics of hydroelectric engineering accidents and the scientific and adaptive evaluation indicators,a system of emergency response capability evaluation indicators for hydroelectric engineering accidents is constructed.By incorporating Maclaurin symmetric mean into the information integration of probability hesitation fuzziness,under the new geometric weighting form,the actual state of evaluation information with unequal weight probability is considered.In response to the information fusion problem of evaluation indicators,multiple fusion of the evaluation information of indicators is carried out,and combined with the defined score function,a hydroelectric engineering accident emergency response capability evaluation model based on probabilistic hesitant fuzzy weighted Maclaurin geometric symmetric mean(PHFWMGSM)operator is obtained and verified.Secondly,incomplete information conditions can be divided into two situations: 1)In the case of incomplete information on indicator weights and values,a game theory combined weighting assessment method for emergency capability of hydroelectric engineering based on incomplete evaluation information is proposed.Considering the uncertainty of expert experience judgment and the fuzziness of indicators,an assessment matrix is constructed,and quadratic programming model combined with decision alternative ratia evaluation method is used to calculate the reasonable index weights by combining subjective weights and objective weights.2)Considering the situation where the decision-makers’ weight is unknown,rank correlation analysis method is used to combine the numerical characteristics of the interrelationships between two-dimensional random variables(X,Y).A method for evaluating the emergency response capability group of hydroelectric engineering emergencies with unknown evaluator weights based on rank correlation analysis method is proposed,and the evaluator’s weight is reasonably determined.On this basis,the final emergency capability evaluation result is obtained.Thirdly,the comparison and analysis of the evaluation models are carried out by using Copeland scoring ranking method,and the correlation analysis is carried out with Spearman correlation coefficient.The evaluation results can prioritize the emergency capability.The degree of emergency capability of hydroelectric engineering can be effectively distinguished.The correlation coefficients obtained are expressed as strong correlation relationships,which shows the validity and stability of the evaluation model.Based on the verification of engineering examples,the important indexes affecting emergency capability are summarized,which can specifically reflect some problems in emergency management.The evaluation results of emergency capability are consistent with the actual engineering.It is shown that the models and methods in this paper have good engineering applicability.In summary,through the index system adopted,the operator is used to fuse multi-attribute evaluation information,and the evaluation results are obtained through the evaluation model of emergency capacity of hydroelectric engineering under incomplete information,and it is analyzed and verified by comparison and examples,which illustrates the reliability and stability of the evaluation model and the applicability of the engineering,and provides certain reference significance for emergency management. |
