Research On Evaluation Of Complex Equipment Development Planning Based On Hesitant Fuzzy Theory

Complex equipment is a concrete manifestation of a country’s military strength,important support for the army to be able to fight and win battles.The demonstration and evaluation of complex equipment development planning is an important part of national defense construction,covering a series of work such as evaluation,decision-making,and planning of complex equipment.Compared with traditional general equipment,complex equipment has a great impact on the development of weapon equipment system of systems,so it is particularly important to carry out the development planning evaluation research of complex equipment.Traditional evaluation work mostly relies on experts’ experience and knowledge to evaluate the scheme and uses numerical values to score the scheme.This data representation method cannot record the complete evaluation information of experts,and ignores the hesitancy and fuzziness of expert evaluation.At the same time,the evaluation of complex equipment development strategy planning lacks the support of a set of evaluation theories including evaluation indicators,evaluation data and evaluation methods.The development of complex equipment needs to consider the change of operational requirements,and select the development plan with strong robustness to carry out construction so as to maximize the use of funds and time.Traditional evaluation methods do not combine the multi-functional characteristics of complex equipment and ignore the non-compensable characteristics of capabilities,so these evaluation methods cannot effectively support and satisfy the demonstration work of complex equipment development.Therefore,based on the theory of hesitant fuzzy theory,this paper carries out evaluation work from two aspects of complex equipment development strategy planning and development scheme planning,aiming at assisting decision-making issues such as project approval,selection,evaluation and planning of complex equipment.The main research contents and innovations of this paper are summarized as follows:(1)Proposed an evaluation method for complex equipment development strategy planning considering the difference of expert preferenceFirstly,from practice,the evaluation index system of strategic planning is put forward,which includes systematic,coordinated,supportive and balanced.Then,in the process of multi-criteria group decision-making,considering the difference of expert preference,an evaluation method of complex equipment development strategy planning based on weighted Borda rule and IVHF-ELECTRE III is proposed,on the one hand,this paper proposed the IVHF-ELECTRE Ⅲ method,which can solve the problem of mutual compensation among the criteria existing in the traditional weighted sum model.On the other hand,the weighted Borda rule is used to summarize the expert evaluation results,and the method of sorting the evaluation results of single experts and then synthesizing the evaluation results of multiple experts is adopted,which can ensure that relatively reliable conclusions can be drawn even when there are serious differences in expert preference.Finally,compared with IVHF-ELECTRE method,IVHF-TOPSIS method,IVHFAWA operator method and GHIVFWG operator method,the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified.(2)Proposed an evaluation method for complex equipment development planning scheme considering the change of combat sceneComplex equipment development program evaluation needs to consider the change of combat scene and the hesitation of experts in the evaluation process.Considering the performance synthesis value and performance hesitancy as the value of complex equipment development scheme,a Value-Focused Thinking(VFT)based planning and evaluation method for complex equipment development was proposed.Firstly,the weight of the complex equipment capability index is solved based on the maximum deviation method.Then,the value of complex equipment development scheme is calculated based on capability requirement satisfaction degree and IVHF-TOPSIS method.Finally,the development schemes of complex equipment are sorted based on the robustness deviation index,and the development schemes with good performance in various combat scenarios are selected.(3)Proposed an evaluation method for complex equipment development planning scheme considering capability non-compensable mechanism.This article introduced hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set to facilitate expression evaluation experts.First of all,the capability non-compensable mechanism is defined,and the optimization of complex equipment development scheme under this mechanism o is deeply analyzed,thinking good equipment scheme should not only have higher overall ability,also must be able to effectively match,an evaluation method based on distance measure and correlation measure for hesitant fuzzy language is proposed.Then,the correlation measure of hesitant fuzzy language term set is improved.Based on this,three evaluation criteria including distance threshold method,distance-correlation weighted synthesis method and distance-correlation multiplication and division method are proposed to guide the optimization of complex equipment development scheme.Finally,the validity of the method is verified by comparative analysis,and the necessity and rationality of improving the definition of correlation coefficient are proved.