Emergency Capacity Evaluation And Emergency Strategy Research Of City Sudden Gas Shortage

With the change of the city’s energy structure,the security of gas supply has become increasingly important to the normal operation of the city.However,frequent urban gas shortage accidents not only challenge urban emergency management,but also make urban emergency gas capacity assessment and research on emergency strategies an important part of urban emergency management.The evaluation system and targeted response strategies to the evaluation results are an important way to improve the emergency capacity of urban gas shortages.Based on the current research on the emergency capacity assessment of urban gas shortages,this paper creatively divides the emergency capacity of urban gas shortages into emergency disaster prevention and emergency defense through a comprehensive analysis of the emergency gas shortage process in cities.Two emergency parts.First,based on the occurrence mechanism of urban gas supply shortage accidents,the causal analysis of the causal factors and disaster-causing factors of emergency disaster prevention capabilities is made,and the influencing factors of urban sudden gas shortage accidents are classified into four categories: gas pipeline network equipment failure Factors,safety management factors,emergency management capability factors,and human factors.Based on the system dynamics method,the in-depth causal relationship of the urban gas shortage accident system is analyzed and analyzed,and an SD model of the safety level of urban gas shortage accidents is established.Through the quantitative and qualitative relationship between factors,Xi’an City’s emergency gas shortage disaster prevention capacity was evaluated.Secondly,based on the existing research theory of emergency defense against urban gas shortages,comprehensively analyze each influencing factor system that affects the emergency defense capabilities of urban gas shortages,and transform the system of influencing factors of emergency defense capabilities into a USGSFPN network assessment model,And excavated the feedback causality between various factors in the emergency process,using fuzzy inference algorithm and analytic hierarchy process to digitally process the emergency capability level evaluation indicators and fuzzy factors,and analyzed and evaluated the emergency resistance of the sudden gas shortage in Xi’an.Finally,the core stage of the emergency capacity of the city’s sudden gas shortage-emergency rescue is selected as the research goal of the emergency capacity strategy.Through analyzing and summarizing the emergency rescue mechanism research and emergency capability evaluation results of the city’s sudden gas shortage,the influencing factors of the emergency rescue system are divided into four subsystems:emergency rescue communication,emergency resource guarantee,emergency resource scheduling,and disaster recovery and rescue.According to the causal relationship between the factors of each subsystem,an SD simulation model of emergency rescue strategy with the goal of improving emergency rescue capability was constructed.Through the analysis and design of emergency strategies,we focused on selecting emergency resource transportation routes,emergency resource reserves,rescue technicians’ repair level and other emergency strategies for dynamic simulation research of the model.The results show that these three emergency rescue strategies,on the basis of enhancing emergency rescue capabilities,also Further improve the emergency capacity of the city’s sudden gas shortage,and also verify the effectiveness of the SD model of emergency rescue strategy.