Research On Emergency Response Decision-making Of Long-distance Diversion Project Risk Based On Regret Theory And Hesitant Fuzzy Set

The long-distance water diversion project is a complex system project involving a wide area,many influencing factors,complex engineering structure and large scale,Due to the particularity of the long-distance water diversion project,when an emergency occurs,the relevant decision-making work of the emergency plan needs to be carried out under the condition of tight time and high risk,and also to ensure that the selected plan is the best.The main research contents of this article are as follows:(1)Aiming at the emergencies of the long-distance water diversion project,the categories are classified,and the risk analysis and emergency response system research of various emergencies are carried out.Based on the grounded theory,the risk factors of the long-distance water diversion project are summarized and refined,and the conceptual model of the long-distance water diversion project emergency elements is constructed.(2)Based on the dynamic Bayesian network theory,the evolution law of longdistance water diversion project emergencies is studied,the process of constructing the emergency scenario network is expounded,and the probability of various scenarios in the long-distance water diversion project emergencies occurs Perform calculations to provide conditions for decision calculations.(3)Based on regret theory and hesitant fuzzy sets,the decision information is expressed as hesitant fuzzy numbers,in order to cope with the uncertainties in the emergency and the divergence of expert opinions;On this basis,considering the limited rationality of the decision-making experts may affect the decision-making information,and reduce the influence of the decision-making expert’s regret avoidance psychology on the decision-making information;Aiming at the possible situation state,the decision-making research based on regret theory and hesitant fuzzy set is carried out,and the emergency response plans are sorted.Through the engineering example,the calculation process is demonstrated,and the final decision-making plan of the example is provided.