Evaluation And Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis Of Land Use Planning Implementation Based On Geographic Processes

The overall planning of rural land use in China is the bottom layer of the vertical five levels of spatial planning,playing a crucial role in promoting and guiding the economic development of rural areas.In the process of planning implementation,poor construction guidance,delayed plan adjustment,illegal land occupation,and other factors often lead to poor planning implementation.Existing planning implementation evaluation models are mostly based on simple spatial overlay analysis,emphasizing consistency of results while ignoring process consistency,Not conducive to the supervision and guidance of the planning and implementation process.At the same time,the current rapid development of township economy urgently requires scientific prediction of land use scale and development direction for the future development of townships,in order to better meet the requirements of upper level planning and development concepts.At present,the land use structure in the new era is becoming more and more complex.In order to better implement the requirements of the upper level planning and reduce the occurrence of economic construction activities that occupy high-quality farmland,damage the ecological environment and historical and cultural landscape,this paper uses the method of data analysis and spatial analysis to build a spatial fit model and a gravity shift model,and quantitatively calculate the consistency between the planning and the status quo from the two levels of the planning implementation process and implementation results.On this basis,combined with socio-economic development,explore the reasons for inconsistent issues,comprehensively consider the development concepts and requirements of ecological priority and people-oriented,set three development scenarios: economic priority,ecological priority,and economic ecological balance,and set objective functions and optimization objectives through multi-objective planning models,Utilizing artificial neural networks(ANN)and cellular automata(CA)models to achieve multi scenario simulation analysis of future land use.Based on the current research status at home and abroad,the theory and methods of planning implementation evaluation,and the principles and applications of land use optimization allocation models,this study takes the overall land use planning results of Longhu Town,Xinzheng City,Henan Province from 2009 to 2020 as an example to conduct research.The main results are as follows:(1)The residential land area and arable land area in Longhu Town account for a relatively large proportion of the total town area.In the long-term development process,the number of agricultural land in Longhu Town is gradually decreasing,and more is shifting towards construction land.Among them,residential land shows a growth trend,indicating that the real estate economy to some extent still dominates the development direction of Longhu Town.Although the current land use structure is becoming increasingly reasonable,there are still problems of extensive land development and poor management.(2)By constructing a spatial fit model and a center of gravity shift model,the consistency between the planning and the current situation was quantitatively analyzed from the perspectives of the planning implementation process and results.It was found that the spatial fit of the land planning implementation process and results in Longhu Town was high,but there were problems with poor guidance for construction land and inadequate classification and protection of unused land.The distribution direction,center of gravity shift direction,and distance of construction land met the planning objectives,And it shows a trend of developing towards the northeast.(3)By constructing a multi-objective planning model and a future land use simulation model,three land use scenarios of economic priority,ecological priority,and economic ecological balanced development were set.Through visual analysis and comparison,it was found that under the economic ecological balanced development model,the research area can achieve sustainable and high-quality development.(4)Based on the experimental and analytical results,four suggestions are proposed for the future development of Longhu Town,namely,encouraging emerging industries to be located in the northeastern tribal areas of the township;Some plans are no longer suitable for actual development needs,and timely planning adjustments should be made;In the future,we should encourage the transfer of urban construction land to the west,providing space for the future development of the city;We should strengthen the concept of returning forest to farmland and grassland and deepen planning and urban construction.The quantitative analysis method for the process and results of planning implementation can provide methodological guidance for the post evaluation of national spatial planning.The multi-objective planning model and the land use multi scenario simulation model have important practical significance and value in improving land use efficiency and addressing urbanization issues.