Research On The Optimization Of County Territory Space Layout Based On FLUS Model

Territorial space is an important carrier of the natural system and social economic system.Optimizing the layout of territorial space is an important measure for the smooth progress of the spatial planning system reform and a major strategic issue for the sustainable development of regional socio-economics.At present,agricultural space and ecological space are constantly being squeezed by urban space,and the spatial structure of the country is gradually unbalanced,which poses severe challenges to regional food production,ecological security,and social and economic development.Therefore,in the new situation,how to scientifically delimit the urban-agricultural-ecological space and optimize the spatial layout of the land has become a key issue of concern to all sectors of society today.From the perspective of related research on land space optimization,existing studies have mostly carried out land space optimization based on the carrying capacity and suitability evaluation.When constructing the index system,the current indicators of nature,location,and socio-economic aspects were selected.Considering the spatial change,in view of this,this article puts forward the idea of land space optimization based on dynamic prediction model.This paper takes Licheng County as the research area.First,on the basis of clarifying the connotation of the three types of space,a land space classification system is constructed,and the reclassified Licheng County land space status data in 2010 and 2015 are used to analyze the land space evolution of Licheng County.According to the actual situation,logistic regression analysis method is used to select 9 driving factors from the three aspects of nature,location and social economy;secondly,using Markov and FLUS models to simulate the natural development scenario in 2035,the priority scenario of cultivated land protection,and ecology The results of the spatial layout of the land under the protection priority scenario are compared and analyzed.Finally,considering the limitations of the single scenario setting,this paper combines the advantages of the three scenarios,sets up a sustainable optimization scenario and simulates it,and obtains the optimized scenario The result of the land space layout of Licheng County.On this basis,scientific and feasible optimization suggestions are put forward for the spatial layout of Licheng County.The main findings are as follows:(1)The spatial distribution of Licheng County is dominated by ecological land space and agricultural production space.During 2010-2015,agricultural production space,ecological water area space,and ecological land space showed a downward trend,while other spaces showed an upward trend;In terms of spatial change rate,the dynamic rate of change in Licheng County is relatively small.In terms of single dynamic degree,the single dynamic degree of rural living space is the largest;from the perspective of the characteristics of land space transfer,the performance of agricultural production space,ecological water space and ecological land space As a net transfer-out,rural life and urban space appear as a net transfer-in.(2)Based on the principle of driving factor selection,combined with the actual situation of Licheng County,this paper selects elevation,slope,aspect,distance from river,distance from township center,distance from main traffic arterial road,distance from township and village road,population density,Per capita income is a total of nine driving factors that affect land space changes.Through Logistic regression model analysis,it can be seen that the ROC values of land space types in various countries are all greater than0.7,indicating that the regression equation has a good fit and the selected driving factors can explain each The distribution characteristics of similar land space can be used to simulate the land space layout of Licheng County.(3)Based on the 2010 territorial spatial data,using Markov and FLUS models to simulate the territorial spatial layout in 2015,and testing through the Kappa index,the calculated Kappa value is 0.976,which is above 0.75,indicating that the simulation results are ideal and can be Use this model and related parameters to simulate the spatial layout of Licheng County in 2035.According to the actual situation of Licheng County,three development scenarios were set up and simulated.It was found that the results of Licheng County’s territorial spatial layout under the three scenarios were significantly different.In the natural development scenario,since no restricted areas are set up,the urban space expansion is not restricted by the restriction conditions.Compared with the other two scenarios,the rural living space and urban space are larger;under the priority scenario of cultivated land protection,the addition of Cultivated land is the limitation of agricultural production space,so that agricultural production space has been protected to a certain extent.Compared with the natural development scenario,the area of agricultural production space has increased by 90.72hm~2,and the reduction rate has been reduced;The ecological space has been further protected.Compared with the natural development scenario,the ecological water area and ecological land space have increased by 10.26hm~2 and 72.09hm~2 respectively,and the rate of decrease has slowed down.(4)Taking into account the shortcomings of a single scenario,this paper combines the advantages of the three scenarios and proposes a sustainable optimization scenario.The simulation found that the optimization scenario is more suitable for urban and rural construction,cultivated land protection and protection of Licheng County than the above three scenarios.The demand for ecological protection is more in line with the trend of land space utilization in Licheng County,and it has strong applicability.On this basis,combined with the current problems in the use of land and space in Licheng County,three land and space optimization suggestions are put forward,namely: rationally adjust the urban spatial layout,promote the efficient use of land and space resources;promote the intensive use of rural living space,and ensure agricultural production Sustainable development;practice the concept of ecological civilization and strengthen ecological environment protection.