Land Use Change And Multi-scenario Simulation In Luochuan County Based On Markov-Flus Model

Since the new century,with the rapid development of our society and economy,to improve the land resources development and utilization degree.However,limited land resources,irreplaceability and scarcity,exacerbated the contradiction of population and land.In order to find a balance between economic development,resource protection and ecological security,we need to study of land use change,to explore the characteristics and rules of land use temporal and spatial change,and predict the spatial distribution of land use in the future.This will help to related department to rational planning of land spatial layout,improving land use efficiency,improve the land use structure,relieve the contradiction between human and land resources,and realize the sustainable development of natural resources.This paper selects Luochuan County of Yan ’an City as the research area,the characteristics and rules of spatiotemporal evolution of land use in Luochuan County in 2000,2010 and 2020 were analyzed from five aspects of quantity change,transfer matrix,dynamic change,spatial change and landscape pattern change.In consideration of the selection principle and the evolution characteristics of Luochuan County land types,11 driving factors were selected,and their accuracy was verified by Logistic regression model and ROC curve.Then the ANN module was imported to calculate the suitability probability,the use of Markov-FLUS coupling model,the simulation of land use pattern in 2020.The accuracy was verified by comparing the results with the current situation in 2020.Finally,four different scenarios of "Natural Development","Cultivated Land and Garden Land Protection","Ecological Protection" and "Sustainable Development" were set up using this model to predict the land use pattern of Luochuan County in 2030.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The land use in Luochuan County was mainly cultivated land and woodland.The change of land use in Fengqi Street Office from 2000 to 2020 was more dramatic,and the land use was mainly converted from cultivated land to construction land.Overall,2010-2020 was more active than 2000-2010 land use changes.The degree of landscape aggregation decreases year by year,the degree of landscape fragmentation increases gradually,and the impact of human activities becomes stronger and stronger.(2)The land use pattern in 2020 predicted by the Markov-Flus coupling model has a good fitting effect,with the Kappa coefficient of 0.8403 and the overall classification accuracy of89.21%.The results show that this model can be used to predict the land use distribution in Luochuan County.(3)Through comparative analysis of four kinds of scenario luochuan county land use situation in 2030 showed that considering all kinds of limiting factors and policies,set the sustainable development of the scene,garden and the ecological environment are protected,also with space to the development of land for construction purposes,all classes tend to be stable,the land use structure more reasonable,and the policy of limiting factors and constraints to the sustainable development of land.(4)Based on the analysis of the land use change in Luochuan County in the past 20 years and the simulation results of the land use situation in 2030,three suggestions are put forward:Control the approved area of construction land,and promote the economical and intensive use of this land;Strictly protect the basic farmland protection red line,improve the quality of farmland space;To consolidate results of returning farmland to forest and grass,protect the natural ecological environment.