Research On The Impact Of Port Logistics On Export Trade In The Yangtze River Delta Under The Background Of The COVID-19

In the environment of the spread of COVID-19,the global economic downturn combined with the rise of trade protectionism,China’s export trade is facing greater challenges and uncertainty.As the leader of China’s export trade,the Yangtze River Delta region plays an important role in promoting the development of China’s export-oriented economy.In December 2019,the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta was officially promoted as a national development strategy.The outline of the plan emphasizes the need to improve the level of infrastructure connectivity,including the construction of port logistics,which bears the heavy responsibility of foreign trade circulation.Under the realistic background of the outbreak of COVID-19 and the policy background of the introduction and implementation of the integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta and the coordinated promotion of port logistics construction,it is an important topic that cannot be ignored to discuss the development of port logistics and export trade in the Yangtze River Delta.In particular,the study on the impact of port logistics in the Yangtze River Delta on export trade under the background of the novel coronavirus epidemic has important reference significance for the future development of the Yangtze River Delta’s export-oriented economy under the complex environment.In this paper,the relevant theories and studies of port logistics and export trade are firstly sorted out,the ways and paths of port logistics’ impact on export trade are specifically analyzed,and then the status quo of port logistics and export trade in the Yangtze River Delta under the background of the novel coronavirus epidemic is analyzed.Using National Bureau of Statistics and provincial and municipal statistical yearbooks as data sources,this paper empirically discusses the long-term dynamic correlation between port logistics and export trade in the Yangtze River Delta region through grey correlation analysis method and panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model.On this basis,Panel data from January 2020 to October 2022 after the outbreak of COVID-19 were selected to build a PVAR model to analyze the impact of port logistics in the Yangtze River Delta on export trade,and the vector autoregression model(VAR)was used to explore the impact of port logistics in specific provinces and cities on export trade under the background of COVID-19.In this paper,the empirical results indicate that:(1)in the long term,port logistics in Yangtze river delta and have a stable equilibrium relation between export trade,the Yangtze river delta port logistics and long-term mutual promoting effect is very significant between export trade;(2)In the short term,under the background of COVID-19,regional integrated port logistics in the Yangtze River Delta had a short and weak negative impact on export trade,and the negative effect gradually disappeared and tended to zero with time;(3)In the short term,in the context of COVID-19,port logistics of specific provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta have different impacts on export trade.The port logistics of Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai have a cross fluctuation of positive impact and negative impact on export trade,while the impact of Anhui port logistics on export trade has always been negative.Finally,based on the results of the empirical study,this paper gives the following suggestions: improve the overall efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta port group,establish a unified management model and standard;Optimize the construction of large-scale specialized port infrastructure and promote the in-depth development of existing terminals;Actively improve the port service and support capacity,promote the construction of smart ports;Actively cultivate modern port logistics technical experts.