| At the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020,countries and regions around the world began to implement strict control measures one after another,resulting in the disruption of loading and unloading operations in ports around the world,and some ports almost stopped production,the epidemic seriously affected the smooth flow of international shipping channels,causing a huge impact on the global international shipping market.Global shipping logistics costs are rising,container shipping is affected by the epidemic and the supply and demand market is changing,coupled with the impact of crude oil prices and other factors,the operating costs and management costs of major international container shipping companies remain high,and the China Export Container Freight Index(CCFI),which is known as the"barometer" of the container shipping market,has shown that from 2020 to 2021,the container shipping market is expected to grow at a high rate.China Export Container Freight Index(CCFI),which is known as the barometer of container shipping market,shows that it will continue to soar in two years from 2020 to 2021.With the epidemic raging in the world,the world trade pattern has changed,driven by the regional economic development in recent years,China’s import and export to ASEAN is growing,ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner.In the global container shipping costs are rising environment,Southeast Asia container shipping costs are soaring,compared with the epidemic before the comparison has doubled nearly ten times,foreign trade enterprises and international logistics enterprises are facing a huge test.This paper analyzes the impact of the epidemic on the container shipping industry from both shipping supply and shipping demand,selects shipping data,trade data and fuel index data from 2016 to 2022,analyzes the correlation between container liner routes and WTI crude oil index before and after the epidemic,selects Southeast Asia routes as an example to analyze the correlation between trade data and container shipping index,and analyzes the impact of the epidemic on the container shipping industry from the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the following three stages The impact of the epidemic on the container shipping price of Southeast Asia routes is analyzed in three stages,namely,the early,middle and late stages of the epidemic.And the econometric method is used to construct a model to forecast the container shipping index in the next 24 periods.Through the results of empirical analysis,it is found that the correlation and linkage among various routes in the global container shipping market is stronger after the outbreak of the epidemic;the influence of WTI on the comprehensive container freight index for China’s export is more significant.The epidemic accelerated the early arrival of the container shipping cycle,and the shipping market ushered in a boom period,but the good times were not long before it gradually stepped into the recession period;the freight index of China export container routes to Southeast Asia reached its peak in January 2022,and started to fall back to a high level in February 2022,and will continue to show a downward trend in the next 24 periods after September 2022.Accordingly,the challenges posed by the normalization of the epidemic are pointed out and policy recommendations are given in conjunction with the results of the empirical study.The research in this paper is of high value and relevance for understanding the global economy,trade,China’s foreign trade development and the global shipping market in the post-epidemic era. |
