Characteristics Analysis And Preventive Measures Of Expressway Accidents In Hunan Province

In recent decades,with the rapid development of highway,the total mileage of national highway has reached 4.85 million km,meantime the expressway’s mileage has reached 143000 km by the end of 2018,ranking the first in the world.With the fast-growing development of highway,the number of highway traffic accidents has been increasing year by year.Because of the high speed and large traffic volume of expressway,traffic accidents in expressway are more serious.Understanding the characteristics of traffic accidents on expressway and exploring reasonable countermeasures are of great significance to prevent or reduce the occurrence of expressway traffic accidents.This thesis formulates practical accident measures on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of expressway accidents in Hunan Province.This thesis first compares the law of the total number of traffic accidents and the number of accidents per thousand kilometers handled by general procedures from 2012 to 2018.By analyzing the causes of accidents in each year,the author obtains the cause analysis and calendar year trend of general procedure traffic accidents and deaths,and also obtains the statistical analysis of traffic accident causes handled by simple procedures.Then,taking the accident data from 2015-2016 as the sample,the temporal and spatial distribution of accidents and the distribution of accident patterns are descriptively analyzed.It is found that in the hourly distribution,the accident probability is high in 6-8 and 20-22,and in the monthly distribution,the accident probability is high in January and February.Under different accident forms,the accident rate of multi vehicle collision is the highest,and the accident rate of on-site death caused by pedestrian-vehicle collision is the highest.On this basis,the traffic accident morphology model is established.By studying various types of traffic accidents,especially selecting 10 influencing factors such as road alignment,lighting conditions,road surface conditions and roadside protection facilities as independent variables according to the model,three traffic accident prediction models based on multivariate logistic model are established.The forward entry method is used to screen the variables,and the vehicle type,lighting conditions and roadside protection facilities are found to be significantly correlated with traffic accident morphology.Pearson statistics and deviation statistics are used to test the goodness of fit of the modelThe results show that ruck is more prone to single-vehicle collision and man-vehicle collision than buses;single vehicle collision and humanvehicle collision are more likely to occur at night without lighting than in the daytime;semi-rigid guardrails are more prone to single vehicle collision accidents than other forms of guardrails on the roadside.The author tests the good fitting effect of the model.Finally,according to the characteristics of the accident analysis,the thesis puts forward some suggestions,such as eradicating the hidden dangers of road traffic safety,reducing the causes of traffic participants,strengthening legislation,science and technology to seize traffic violations.