Study On The Spatial Effect Of Agricultural Industry Clustering On Agricultural Carbon Emissions

The sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change points out that global warming poses a serious threat to human economic and social development and the safety of life and property.Carbon reduction has become the only option to avoid a climate crisis.As the world’s second largest economy and the largest carbon emitter,China’s economic development and carbon emissions reduction have received attention from the international community.With the increasingly close economic connections between various regions in China,economic zones and economic belts have become important forms,and the industrial agglomeration based on them also affects the carbon correlation and emission reduction between regions.The increase in the degree of industrial agglomeration and the diversification of agglomeration forms can bring economies of scale.Homogeneous industrial agglomeration can not only enable regional infrastructure to be shared,but also reduce costs,which not only enhances the possibility of regional carbon emission reduction synergy,but also affects the overall carbon emission reduction efficiency and process.Agriculture is not only the most sensitive industry to climate change response,but also an industry with great emission reduction potential.The development of agricultural industry agglomeration can solve the problem of limited local resources through resource exchange;It is of great significance for China to achieve sustainable agricultural development by leveraging the spillover effects of technology linkages to promote regional cooperation and emission reduction.Therefore,agricultural industry agglomeration is an important factor that must be considered for carbon reduction.This paper is based on agricultural carbon emission reduction,based on provincial and municipal panel data from 2007 to 2020,referring to the IPCC greenhouse gas emission inventory,and starting from comprehensively measuring agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural industry agglomeration,accurately measuring China’s current agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural industry agglomeration;Then through descriptive statistical analysis and exploratory spatial analysis,grasp the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural industry agglomeration;Next,the traditional spatial Durbin model is used to analyze the impact of industrial agglomeration on agricultural carbon emission spatial spillovers,and further,the partitioned Durbin model and grouped Durbin model are used to study the asymmetric and regional heterogeneous effects of agricultural industrial agglomeration degree and agglomeration type on agricultural carbon emission spatial spillovers;Finally,propose agricultural emission reduction measures from the perspective of regional industrial development and industrial cooperation to achieve emission reduction goals.The conclusion is as follows:(1)From 2007 to 2020,China’s total agricultural carbon emissions showed a fluctuating upward trend.Among the five major agricultural carbon sources,except for ruminant breeding,the emission scale of other carbon sources showed an upward trend;The downward trend of agricultural carbon emission intensity has slowed down;The level of agricultural industry agglomeration varies from place to place,but the overall trend is upward;From the perspective of technological relevance,the overall differences between agricultural related diversification and unrelated diversification vary significantly.(2)There are significant regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural industrial agglomeration,with individual cities achieving a reduction in their total carbon emissions;The phenomenon of non agricultural diversification in western provinces is lower than the national average;Areas with high concentration of agricultural specialization also have high concentration of agricultural synergy.In China,both agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural industry clusters present a positive spatial agglomeration feature,and both are hot or cold spot clusters.(3)Agricultural specialization agglomeration is beneficial to emission reduction in more regions,and agricultural synergy agglomeration increases carbon emissions in more regions,which verifies hypothesis 1.The enhancement of related diversification clusters will intensify agricultural economic competition and carbon emissions;Irrelevant diversity gatherings are passed on to more regions through imitation and learning effects,driving carbon emissions reduction in more regions.Under the geographical channels of various provinces and cities,there is a "linkage effect" between agricultural carbon emission intensity and surrounding areas;Activities such as capital flows and economic exchanges have accelerated the "connectivity and interaction" of agricultural carbon intensity between regions;The similarity of industrial structure and technological exchange and learning have led to an increasingly close relationship between agricultural carbon emissions in various regions.(4)There are significant imitation effects and mutual aid effects in areas with low levels of agricultural specialization agglomeration.Under the agricultural synergy agglomeration zoning,the geographical channels of various provinces and cities present "strong versus strong,weak versus weak",while the economic channels present "strong versus weak,weak complementing each other.";From the perspective of technological relevance,agricultural related diversification helps to form a "strong alliance and weak mutual assistance" of technological agglomeration;The impact of diversified agricultural structures generated by unrelated and diversified agricultural agglomeration in various regions is limited to within the region,and the spillover effect is hindered to a certain extent,presenting "strong and weak complementation,weak and weak mutual assistance",which validates hypothesis 2.(5)The advantages of agricultural collaborative agglomeration and emission reduction in the optimized development zone are large;On the contrary,in moderately developed areas,agricultural collaborative development tends to lead to inadequate resource utilization,so it tends to be specialized development;The protection and development zone considers the coordinated development of regions with similar industrial structures,which can better reduce the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.The three major agricultural development zones all have competition in production factors caused by related diversification,and the carbon growth caused by radical agricultural economic development is offset;Independent diversified agglomeration facilitates deepening agricultural economic ties through diversified agricultural structures.Adopting the same agricultural strategy is conducive to carbon emission reduction,which validates hypothesis 3.Based on the above research conclusions,the following suggestions are proposed:(1)As an important approach to agricultural emission reduction,agricultural industrial agglomeration should be given greater attention by all regions,promoting agricultural industrial cooperation,giving play to cluster effects,and reducing agricultural environmental pollution.(2)The development degree of agricultural industry agglomeration in various regions of China is different,so it is necessary to give full play to the unique advantages of agricultural industry agglomeration and enhance the emission reduction effect of regional agglomeration.(3)In order to better distribute agricultural resources among regions and reduce the "competitive upward" situation of agricultural emissions,it is necessary to establish a regional industrial cooperation platform,achieve information sharing,and promote technological agglomeration learning and policy imitation through industrial cooperation,thereby driving emission reduction.