Research On Spatial-Temporal Differences And Evolution Models Of Agricultural Carbon Emission In China

Carbon emission is an important factor influencing global warming,and agricultural carbon emission is an important part of carbon emission.Therefore,it is significant for agricultural carbon emission reduction to analyze the current status of agricultural carbon emission and the driving factors of their evolution models.In this study,based on the measurement of agricultural carbon emission of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2016,the overall trends,structural characteristics and regional differences of agricultural carbon emission were analyzed.Using the Kernel density estimation we studied the dynamic evolution trends of agricultural carbon emission.And the spatio-temporal differences of agricultural carbon emission intensity was analyzed by using Theil index and spatial autocorrelation in China.31 provinces in China were divided into three kinds of regional types of agricultural carbon emission,by constructing the spatial transfer coefficient of agricultural carbon emission.And then their spatio-temporal evolution and agglomeration characteristics were analyzed.On this basis,six kinds of agricultural carbon emission evolution models were further divided,and panel Logit models were applied to reveal the major driving factors of the six kinds of agricultural carbon emission evolution models.The results indicated that:(1)Agricultural carbon emission showed a four-stage evolutionary characteristic of “fluctuating rising-fast falling-steady rising-steady falling” in our country from 1997 to 2016.The agricultural carbon emission sources have shifted from animal husbandry to planting industry.The agricultural carbon emission and emission intensity of three regions and inter-province were significantly different.And the agricultural carbon emission intensity continues to decline.(2)The spatio-temporal differences of agricultural carbon emission and intensity of agricultural carbon emission in China were obvious.From 1997 to 2016,the regional differences of agricultural carbon emission in China continued to increase.The regional differences of agricultural carbon emission in eastern and central regions increased first and then decreased,while the regional differences of agriculturalcarbon emission in western regions became larger and larger.The overall difference of agricultural carbon emission intensity in China was small,showing an upward trend,while the western region was the main contributor of within-region differences.The intensity of agricultural carbon emission was significant and positive spatial autocorrelation.The high-high agglomeration area was mainly distributed in the western region.(3)The spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural carbon emission regional types was improving,and the driving factors of different carbon emission evolution modes were different,so it was necessary to take measures to reduce agricultural carbon emission according to local conditions.The major eastern regions fell into the steady decline pattern,while most of central regions and western regions fell into the continual growth pattern.Increasing agricultural public investment,raising the level of agricultural technology and promoting the upgrading of agricultural industry could effectively promote agricultural carbon reduction.Improving disposable income of farmers could effectively prevent agricultural carbon emission growth,however it had no effect on promoting a steady decline in agricultural carbon emission.While raising the level of agricultural machinery has not promoted the reduction of agricultural carbon emission yet,but promoted the growth of agricultural carbon emission.Finally,based on the results of research,this paper put forward some corresponding policy recommendations from the perspective of reducing agricultural carbon emission.