Study On The Impact Of Agricultural Product Prices On Agricultural Carbon Emissions In China

At present,China is in a critical period of green transformation and high-quality development of agriculture,and the development of low-carbon agriculture is not only an inevitable requirement for high-quality development of agriculture,but also one of the important ways to achieve China’s goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Agricultural product prices play an important role in agricultural production as market signals,and are one of the important factors that cannot be ignored in influencing farmers’ production decisions.At the same time,due to the differences in resource endowments and economic development levels among different provinces and regions,the prices of agricultural products also vary greatly in different regions,and the impact on agricultural production activities also shows different characteristics.Therefore,exploring the impact of agricultural commodity prices on agricultural carbon emissions can not only provide a new perspective for analyzing the factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions,but also provide a policy reference for the government to formulate a reasonable pricing mechanism to achieve carbon control and emission reduction and green and high-quality development in agriculture.This study constructs an agricultural carbon emission accounting system from four aspects: agricultural land use,soil carbon emission,livestock and poultry breeding and rice cultivation,and analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution and structural characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in China based on provincial-scale panel data from 2003 to 2020,using a combination of research methods such as Thayer index,standard deviation ellipse analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Meanwhile,a two-way fixed spatial Durbin model is used to explore the influence of agricultural prices on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in China.The main research findings are as follows:(1)From the trend of temporal changes,the total agricultural carbon emissions in China showed a fluctuating downward trend during the study period,with an average annual decrease of 0.22%,showing four stages of "rapid increase-rapid decrease-fluctuating increase-fluctuating decrease " Although there are differences in the degree of changes in the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions,the overall trend is decreasing,with an average annual decrease of 2.86%.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the total agricultural carbon emission in 18 provinces in 2020 is decreasing compared with that in 2003,and based on the standard deviation ellipse analysis,it is found that the center of gravity of agricultural carbon emission on average in China shows a trend of moving westward,which is basically consistent with the direction of moving the center of gravity of agricultural output value on average in China;while the intensity of agricultural carbon emission is "high in the west and low in the east " Based on the analysis of the Thiel index,it is found that the difference in agricultural carbon emission intensity has a tendency to expand and is mainly dominated by intra-regional differences.In terms of structural characteristics,China’s agricultural carbon emissions are mainly dominated by carbon emissions from livestock and poultry breeding and agricultural land use,but the proportion of carbon emissions from livestock and poultry breeding is gradually decreasing,while the proportion of carbon emissions from agricultural land use,soil carbon emissions and rice cultivation is increasing;there are also differences in the structure of agricultural carbon emissions among provinces(municipalities and districts).(2)The results of spatial autocorrelation test show that China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity has spatial agglomeration,and there are obvious characteristics of spatial correlation between agricultural carbon emission intensity of neighboring provinces,and the spatial correlation gradually decreases,while the prices of agricultural products and the level of agricultural economic development also show differential spatial autocorrelation.The empirical analysis using a two-way fixed spatial Durbin model finds that the coefficients of agricultural commodity prices and their spatial lagged terms are positive,and agricultural commodity prices have a significant influence on agricultural carbon emission intensity,that is,agricultural commodity prices can promote agricultural carbon emission intensity in the region and surrounding areas.In addition,the level of agricultural economic development,financial support to agriculture,agricultural industry structure,agricultural mechanization level,farmland operation scale,urbanization level,urban-rural income gap and agricultural technology progress all have different degrees of influence on agricultural carbon emission intensity.The analysis of regional differences shows that the price of agricultural products in the western region has a significant positive contribution to the intensity of local agricultural carbon emissions,while the price of agricultural products in the eastern region has a significant contribution to the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in the neighboring regions,while the effect in the central region is not significant,and there are regional differences in the influence of factors such as the level of agricultural economic development on agricultural carbon emissions.(3)Based on the analysis of the temporal,spatial and structural changes of China’s total agricultural carbon emissions and intensity from 2003 to 2020,combined with the empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural commodity prices on agricultural carbon emissions,we propose countermeasures and suggestions in three aspects: stabilizing agricultural commodity prices,building a long-term mechanism to support agriculture and strengthening ecological agricultural development,aiming to provide useful support for promoting green agricultural development,promoting sustainable agricultural development and regional coordination to promote agricultural carbon emission reduction.