Study On The Spatial And Temporal Evolution Characteristics And Emission Reduction Potential Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In The Qinba Mountains

Since the 1980 s,the massive emission of greenhouse gases has caused great damage to the global ecological environment.The climate issue is no longer a regional issue of a certain country or region,but a global issue that all countries must deal with together.Agriculture is the second largest source of carbon emissions after industry,and also an important source of global non-carbon greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,agricultural carbon reduction has become the focus of attention of various countries or regions.Qinba Mountains is rich in natural resources,fertile land and suitable climate,which has gradually become the most important agricultural development area in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.Therefore,it is of great and far-reaching significance to study agricultural carbon emissions in Qinba Mountains to protect ecological environment and reduce carbon emissions so as to achieve sustainable developmentBased on the above background,after reviewing relevant domestic and foreign literature,this study takes agricultural green development,low-carbon agriculture,sustainable development,and environmental economics theories as the entry point,and consults relevant statistical data,aiming at providing feasible policy suggestions for reducing carbon emissions in the agricultural sector of Qinba Mountains.Firstly,the agricultural carbon emissions of each county in the Qinba Mountains during 2000-2020 were calculated from three aspects: carbon emissions from crop farming activities,soil carbon emissions from farmland and carbon emissions from animal husbandry.Based on the calculation results,the agricultural carbon emissions of 80 counties in the Qinba Mountains were divided into five categories for spatio-temporal evolution analysis.Then,the spatial Durbin model was used to study the factors affecting the agricultural carbon emissions in the Qinba Mountains.Finally,the peak value of agricultural carbon emissions was estimated by scenario simulation.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:On the whole,from 2000 to 2020,the agricultural carbon emissions in Qinba Mountains showed an upward trend in time;on the whole,the agricultural carbon emissions in Henan area showed a downward trend after 2014,while the agricultural carbon emissions in Sichuan area and Shaanxi area were in the growth period,and the growth rate in Sichuan area was faster than that in Shaanxi area.Spatial analysis of the distribution of agricultural carbon emissions in Qinba Mountains by natural breakpoint method showed that the highest carbon emissions were in Shaanxi and Henan regions in2000,and the highest agricultural carbon emissions were in the second category of15,600-33,700 t.The region with the highest agricultural carbon emission in 2007 was the same as that in 2000,and the highest agricultural carbon emission was 59,600-106,000 t in the fourth category.In 2014,the highest agricultural carbon emission was in Shaanxi,Sichuan and Hubei regions,and the highest agricultural carbon emission was in the fourth category of 82,400-115,200 t.In 2020,the regions with the highest agricultural carbon emissions were Gansu,Shaanxi,Henan and Sichuan,and the largest agricultural carbon emissions were 27,700-52,100 t in the second category.The influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission in Qinba Mountains were obtained by analyzing the results of spatial Durbin model: population has a negative influence on agricultural carbon emissions in the Qinba Mountains;Fiscal revenue has a positive impact on the increase of local agricultural carbon emissions,and a negative spatial spillover effect on the surrounding counties.The reason why the total effect is negative is that the indirect effect is greater than the direct effect on the region.Both fiscal expenditure and per capita gross regional product have positive effects on agricultural carbon emissions in Qinba Mountains.These indicators to measure economy all show that rapid economic growth has a positive effect on agricultural carbon emissions in Qinba Mountains.Technical index agricultural carbon emission intensity has a positive effect on agricultural carbon emission of all counties and regions,and the agricultural carbon emission intensity has the highest positive effect on agricultural carbon emission.In the prediction of agricultural carbon emission based on STIRPAT scenario analysis,it is shown that the lowest peak carbon emission is 4,087,300 t under low-carbon scenario,followed by 4,156,000 t under energy-saving scenario and 4,965,400 t under baseline scenario.The results showed that adjusting the carbon increase factor and carbon reduction factor could change the peak speed and peak of agricultural carbon emission in Qinba Mountains.According to the research conclusions,this paper proposes to improve production technology and improve agricultural production efficiency through the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure,local policies and overall planning,so as to effectively restrain the growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions and lay the foundation for China to achieve the double carbon target on schedule.