Study On The Influencing Factors And Trade Potential Of Chinese Steel Product Exports To RCEP Member Countries

Today’s world is experiencing major changes unprecedented in a century,and the degree of economic globalization is becoming deeper and deeper,but in recent years,anti-globalization measures such as trade protectionism have risen.RCEP,which officially came into effect on January 1,2022,is the world’s largest free trade area and an important milestone in promoting economic,trade and economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region under the new situation.In September 2020,President Xi Jinping announced at the United Nations General Assembly that China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.As one of the main carbon emission industries,the steel industry has not yet completely solved the problem of overcapacity,and the pressure can be imagined.Therefore,this paper studies the influencing factors and trade potential of China’s steel products exported to RCEP member countries,in order to achieve a greener and more modern development of China’s steel industry.After combing the existing literature,this paper first introduces the current situation and existing problems of China’s steel products exported to RCEP countries.Then,the constant market share model(CMS model)is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of the change of trade volume of China’s steel products exported RCEP countries,as well as the intensity and change trend of various factors,and the results show that the export structure of China’s steel products needs to be adjusted urgently,and the primary processed steel products will be gradually replaced by relatively high value-added steel products.Moreover,by constructing an extended trade gravity model and calculating the trade potential index of steel products between China and RCEP member countries,it is found that China’s steel product export trade to most developed countries in RCEP member countries is close to saturation,while the export trade of steel products to most of the ten ASEAN countries still has great potential.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis results,this paper puts forward policy optimization suggestions from three levels: the government,the steel industry and steel enterprises.