A Study On Embodied Carbon Emission Scale And Flow Direction:Evidence From RCEP Manufacturing Export

The RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement)was officially implemented on January 1,2022.This is a milestone event for China’s active participation in regional economic integration,which will promote trade between China and countries in the region and drive sustained economic growth in the region as a whole.China,as the world’s largest developing country,export trading power,and largest carbon emitter,has a high proportion of manufacturing export processing trade in the world,and the issue of trade implied carbon emissions has attracted much attention.Against the backdrop of increasingly urgent global climate negotiations,carbon emissions caused by trade within the RCEP region also need to be prepared in advance.Accurately calculating the scale and country distribution of carbon emissions from trade within the RCEP region as early as possible can provide favorable data support for future carbon emission reduction and carbon tariff negotiations,and strive for a stronger voice.This article aims to calculate the overall scale,flow direction,and influencing factors of implied carbon in manufacturing export trade within the RCEP region.Firstly,based on the theoretical and empirical research results of domestic and foreign scholars on trade implied carbon,this paper analyzes the development and changes of export trade among RCEP member countries from 2011 to 2016,as well as the export trade situation between each country and China;Secondly,a multi regional input-output model was constructed to calculate the implied carbon emissions from export trade among 15 countries in the RCEP region over the past six years,including manufacturing,food manufacturing,textile manufacturing,wood and furniture manufacturing,petroleum,chemical and non-metallic mineral product manufacturing,metal mineral product manufacturing,electronic and mechanical manufacturing The scale and flow direction of trade implied carbon emissions in the transportation equipment manufacturing industry and other eight sub sectors of the manufacturing industry;Thirdly,by constructing three mechanisms for increasing implied carbon emissions through export trade,including scale effects,technological effects,and structural effects,an index decomposition model is established to analyze the influencing factors;Finally,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.The article concludes that the implied carbon emissions from RCEP manufacturing export trade are determined by the division of labor in the global product value chain,and the flow direction mainly shows a flow from developing countries to developed countries.Later,the logarithmic Dirichlet index decomposition model was used to analyze the influencing factors of the implicit carbon emissions in RCEP manufacturing trade.It was found that the biggest influencing factor was the technology effect,followed by the structural effect,and the scale effect was the smallest.The main marginal contributions of this article are as follows: firstly,for the first time,from the perspective of RCEP regional trade,a multi regional input-output model is used to calculate the trade implied carbon emissions scale and flow direction of the manufacturing industry and its sub sectors in RCEP member countries over the past 6 years;Secondly,this article uses the value-added trade accounting method to subdivide the implicit carbon sources between trading partners in manufacturing export trade,which helps to measure a country’s trade income and its true corresponding carbon emission responsibility in a reasonable and specific manner.