| The traditional production methods of high investment,high pollution,low efficiency,and low quality in agriculture can no longer adapt to the development trend of modern agriculture.We should fully leverage the characteristics of agriculture as a natural green industry and promote China’s agricultural modernization and ecological civilization construction through green agricultural development.The Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration,and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are the three major urban agglomerations on the Yangtze River Economic Belt,which are the three growth poles driving the development of western,central,and eastern China.Exploring the level of agricultural green development of the three urban agglomerations,identifying obstacles,and making development predictions will provide demonstration for the green development of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and other regions,and also provide reference for government decision-making.This paper refers to the research trends on agricultural green development at home and abroad,defines the concepts of green production,green development,green agriculture and agricultural green development,and systematically studies the theory of two mountains,sustainable development theory and circular economy theory.Conduct statistical description and analysis on the economy,policies,agricultural economy,and agricultural green development of the three major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Based on the development characteristics of the three major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,an agricultural green development evaluation index system consisting of 15 indicators at three benchmark levels of agricultural resources,production environment,and efficient development is constructed.The entropy weight method and vertical and horizontal grading method are used to combine and assign weights to the indicators,and the overall level of agricultural green development of the three major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the three major urban agglomerations from 2006 to 2020 are measured and analyzed.Then,using obstacle degree models and grey prediction models,identify the obstacle factors that hinder the green development of agriculture in the three major urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and predict the level of green development of agriculture in each region in the next 15 years.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2006 to 2020,the overall level of agricultural green development in the three major urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed an upward trend.In 2012,the growth rate accelerated,and the overall level of agricultural green development increased from 0.251 to 0.498,from a general level to a moderate level;Among the three benchmark layers,the evaluation value of agricultural resources increased from 0.072 to 0.135,the evaluation value of production environment increased from 0.919 to 0.207,and the evaluation value of efficient development increased from 0.088 to 0.156.Among the three major urban agglomerations,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has the highest level of agricultural green development,followed by the Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration,and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration have the lowest level.The level of agricultural green development in the Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration has increased from 0.227 to 0.482.Among its 16 cities,Chengdu,Chongqing,and Mianyang have long ranked among the top three in terms of agricultural green development;The agricultural green development level of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has increased from0.242 to 0.454.Among its 31 cities,Wuhan,Changsha,and Yichang have long ranked among the top three in terms of agricultural green development level;The level of green agricultural development in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration increased from 0.275 to 0.557,and among its 27 cities,Shanghai,Suzhou and Hangzhou have long ranked in the top three.(2)Identifying obstacle factors,among the three benchmark layers of the three major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the obstacle level of agricultural resources first decreases and then increases,the obstacle level of production environment first increases and then decreases,and the obstacle level of efficient development continues to decrease.Overall,the comprehensive obstacle level of production environment is the highest.The distribution of obstacle factors in the three urban agglomerations is similar,mainly including agricultural water consumption,intensity of agricultural film use,intensity of fertilizer use,intensity of pesticide use,forest coverage,and urban-rural income ratio.(3)The forecast shows that the green development level of the three major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will continue to rise from 2021 to 2035,and by 2034,the overall predicted value will reach 1,indicating a completely green level.By 2035,the predicted values of the Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration will reach 0.817 and 0.92,which are excellent levels.The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration will reach 1 in 2031,which is a completely green level.Based on research conclusions and combined with major national strategic deployments,four suggestions were proposed: firstly,to improve the efficiency of agricultural resource utilization and the environment of production areas;Secondly,different development paths should be designed based on the current status of agricultural green development;Thirdly,we need to promote green innovation in agriculture and accelerate the integration of urban and rural development;Fourthly,we need to enhance the green economic benefits of agriculture and achieve high-quality development of agriculture. |
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