Research On The Influencing Factors Of Urban Carbon Emission Under The Background Of Double Carbon

At present,with the acceleration of global economic development,carbon dioxide emissions are increasing and climate problems are aggravated.People have carried out a series of studies on carbon emission as the theme.Facing the deepening of the "greenhouse effect",China has actively formulated environmental goals that meet the situation,namely,to reach the goals that carbon peak and carbon neutrality by 2030 and2060 determinedly.On the background of achieving the double carbon goal,this paper analyzes the factors affecting urban carbon emissions,and offers suggestions for carbon reduction.Based on the IPCC method,carbon emissions of 283 Chinese cities during2010-2019 were calculated from end-energy consumption.Five factors affecting carbon emission were selected,and STIRPAT model was established to make an empirical analysis of the factors affecting urban carbon emission from different geographical locations and from different city categories obtained from cluster analysis.Finally,the effect of central heating policy on urban carbon emission is studied based on breakpoint regression method.The empirical analysis shows that:(1)Among the overall effects of urban carbon emission factors,per capita income,total population at the end of the year,local general financial budget expenditure,energy intensity and industrial structure have significant positive promoting effects on carbon emission.Energy intensity has the greatest impact on urban carbon emission,followed by the change of industrial structure.(2)The regression results of four regions show that energy intensity is also the most influential factor;In addition,per capita income and population factors have significant positive effects on urban carbon emissions.Local financial budget expenditure only has a positive promoting effect in the eastern and central regions,while the industrial structure has a remarkable positive influence in the eastern,western and central,and has no significant relationship with carbon emission in the northeast region.(3)In the three categories divided by cluster analysis,urban energy intensity still has the largest impact on carbon emissions,but industrial structure has a significant negative effect in the first category of cities,which plays a role in inhibiting carbon emissions;The energy intensity has a greater positive effect in the second type of cities with a higher degree of industrialization,and the per capita income level and the local general financial budget expenditure have a greater positive promotion effect in the first type of cities with stronger comprehensive strength.In the first type of cities,the influence factor of total population at the end of the year has an inhibitory effect on urban carbon emission.(4)The fuzzy breakpoint regression results show that central heating policy will indeed aggravate urban carbon emissions,and the impact is on the rise in a jump.The implementation of heating policy makes the carbon emission of northern cities rise by leaps and bounds.Since other variables at the north-south boundary pass the local smoothness test,it can be considered that the variation of urban carbon emissions along the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River line is caused by the different implementation of central heating policies.