The Forecast And Analysis Of Carbon Emissions’ Peak Value In The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

To the year of 2015,global carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere reached the highest level.Thus,all the countries in the world have the responsibility to implement measures to control CO2 emissions.China,as a developing country,is in a positive process of industrialization.The excessive dependence on fossil fuels and the development of the economy makes the carbon emissions in China remain increasing.Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,as one of China’s new development district,plays an important role in China’s development,which also faced with severe energy consumption and excessive carbon emissions of the actual problem.Therefore,it is important to study the future development trend of carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region and to control the future emissions by policy measures.The main objective of this paper was seeking the suitable scenarios for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,where both socio-economic development and low-carbon target would be achieved.This paper firstly provided an overall evaluation about the social development and development status of the regional industry in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,and made the impact of carbon emission factors of LMDI decomposition and analysis of the factors and contribution efficiency.Then,potential driven factors of carbon emissions,including population,affluence,urbanization level,technology level,industry construction and energy consumption construction,were selected to build an extended STIRPAT model,where Ridge Regression was applied to ensure its stability.The study concluded that the increase of the population,the per capita GDP and the urbanization level will lead to the increase of carbon emissions,and the optimization of energy structure and industrial level will contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.The STIRPAT model showed the significance of each independent variable,which was the foundation of CO2 emissions’ prediction.Furthermore,eight scenarios were established to explore the possible carbon footprints and the maximum of CO2 in the period from 2013 to 2050.By controlling the influence factors of carbon emission in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,the changes of peak value analyze and the optimal emission scenarios could be determined,which would be helpful for the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region to implement the corresponding strategy of low carbon,including carbon intensity,energy efficiency and industrial structure adjustment.According to the analysis results,the development controlling of technology,reducing the ratio of second industries and controlling the proportion of coal consumption can help achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction control.The effectiveness of control the proportion of coal consumption is the largest.In order to reach peak value of carbon emissions without affecting the economic and social development speed,it is necessary to control the coal consumption ratio,control urbanization,and reduce the development of technology.At the end of this paper,it is proposed to reduce the future carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin and related policies and emission reduction proposals,so that the local government can be more effective to control further carbon emission.