| With the continuous deterioration of the global environment,the issue of global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become the focus of attention of all countries in the world.As the largest carbon emitter in the world,China has put energy conservation into development agenda and actively explored ways to reduce emissions under international pressures.As the driving force of economic development,it is particularly urgent to analyze some factors that have major influence on carbon emissions in the process of urbanization,including the increased urbanization rate,the rapid economic development,the decrease of energy intensity,the change of industrial structure and the improvement of the living standards of residents.Shanxi Province,as a coal-rich province,has steadily advanced its urbanization process in recent years,resulting in high carbon dioxide emissions and increasingly severe environmental issues.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact factors of carbon dioxide emissions and explore the extent of these specific factors to promote energy conservation and urbanization of low-carbon development in the process of urbanization in Shanxi Province.In order to study the factors of carbon emission in the process of urbanization in Shanxi Province,this paper firstly adopts the carbon emission estimation method provided in the IPCC and Provincial guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories,to estimate the carbon dioxide emissions as well as evaluate the level of urbanization and carbon emission of Shanxi Province.In order to evaluate the urbanization level,this paper chooses some indicators representing the process of urbanization and do a time series analysis in vertical dimension as well as horizontal contrast analysis with the average development level across the country,such as the urbanization rate,GDP per capita,and industrial structure.This paper also evaluates the total and structure of carbon dioxide emissions,carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon dioxide emissions from the vertical and horizontal levels respectively.Secondly,the paper explores the theoretic mechanism of various representative factors’ s influence on carbon dioxide emissions in the process of urbanization,and put forward the corresponding hypothesis to provide theoretical basis for empirical analysis.At last,this paper introduce representative indicators of population,economic,industrial,and residential life levels based on the STIRPAT model using the indicator data from 1995-2015,corresponding to the population,wealth,and technical level indicators of the model,to properly expand it.Meanwhile,using the ridge regression method to analyze the effects of various representative factors on carbon dioxide emissions in the process of urbanization.The results of the study indicate that the urbanization rate,GDP per capita,energy intensity,the proportion of secondary industry output in GDP,and the increase in the number of household cars owned by urban residents per 100 households will all contribute to the increase in carbon dioxide emissions.Among them,GDP per capita is the primary influencing factor followed by urbanization rate and energy intensity;the proportion of secondary industry output in GDP and the impact of ownership of household cars on carbon emissions are relatively small compared to the first three parts.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results,combined with the actual situation in Shanxi Province,this paper proposes the following suggestions for energy conservation in Shanxi Province,and taking the green and low-carbon development path of urbanization: reasonably regulate the level of urbanization and improve the quality of urbanization development;transform the economic development pattern and promote industrial transformation and upgrading;optimize the structure of energy consumption and increase the efficiency of energy use;promote the construction of low-carbon cities and promote low-carbon lifestyles. |
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