Research On Influence Factors Of Carbon Emissions In China

Economic development,population structure changes,and urban population growth have led to significant increases in energy consumption and intensive use of different modes of transportation.These factors have a detrimental effect on the environment and an increasing share of carbon emissions.Since 2006,China has surpassed the United States as the number one emitter of carbon emissions,and in 2010,the Chinese economy surpassed the Japanese economy as the second-largest economy in the world.Although China’s per capita CO2 emissions are lower than those of the United States and statistics from 2013-2017 indicate that China’s environmental policies are efficient in controlling emissions intensity,preliminary international estimates show that China’s carbon emissions are growing again since 2018,thus putting tremendous pressure on "China’s green development."Integrating the theoretical basis of the STIRPAT model with ridge regression and the framework of feasible generalized least squares method to study the influencing factors on carbon emissions in China.In this paper,firstly using the time series data from 1978-2018,applying the ridge regression analysis based on the extended STIRPAT model to study the influencing factors on carbon emissions in China;secondly,we select the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces(except Tibet)from 1995-2018,and apply the modified carbon emission factors to investigate the carbon emissions of eight types of energy consumption in each Chinese province and city.The carbon emissions of each province and city in China are measured using the modified carbon emission factors.On this basis,the carbon emission development trends of the country and the three regions are compared;the influence factors of carbon emission in China from the regional perspective are analyzed by using a combination of panel data regression model and STIRPAT model.The results of the empirical analysis of the factors influencing carbon emissions in different periods show that population size,urbanization rate,population age structure,per capita disposable income of urban households,length of railways in operation,and passenger traffic of railways all have significant and different effects on carbon emissions.In recent years,especially railways development and passenger use railways are significant inhibitors that affect carbon emissions in China.Under different regions,the influencing factors of carbon emission have some difference.Based on the empirical results,this paper proposes conclusions and policy recommendations to control carbon emissions in Chinese provinces and cities.