Research On Impact Factors Of Carbon Emission Based On The STIRPAT Model

Since the carrying out of the reform and opening up policy, the economy and society of China has been greatly developed, and the people’s material and cultural life has been greatly improved. But behind the rapid development, contradiction among energy, environment and economy of China is highlighting intensified because of the coal based energy structure, unreasonable industrial structure and lagging energy conservation and emission reduction technology. In this context, the Chinese government began to look for the suitable development model for China’s actual condition of low carbon economy. Analyzing the relationship between the energy, environment, economy and carbon emission is the key to solve this problem.This paper analyzes the consumption of fossil energy and the fossil energy consumption structure of China since 1978, and works out the carbon emission data of China from 1979 to 2013. Inspired of kaya equation, the paper classifies the carbon emission primary factors into three kinds of factors: population factors, economic factors and energy factors, and analyzes the relativity between the factors and carbon emission with grey relational analysis. On the basis of STIRPAT model, the paper decomposes the carbon emission primary factors into ten specifications, structures the multiple linear regression model and works out the contribution rate of these specifications. The results of two methods have high consistency. The result shows that economic factors and energy factors have the most effect of carbon emission, and the population factors have less effect of carbon emission. Finally, the paper summarizes the research result and provides pointed policy suggestion for the development of low carbon economic.