Research On Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Gansu Province

Water is an irreplaceable natural resource for human survival and development.The state of water resources carrying capacity is a reflection of the relationship between people and water resources,the evaluation and research of water resources carrying capacity is of great significance for effectively coping with the pressures and possible dangers of all parties.With the increase in the population size and the development of social economy,the deficient of water resources,the safety of water resources and the deterioration of the water environment have become important issues restricting the sustainable development of Gansu Province.Therefore,it is of practical significance to evaluate and study water resources carrying capacity.The article takes the cities(prefectures)of Gansu Province as the starting point and bases on the panel data from 2009 to 2018,establishing a four-dimensional water resource carrying capacity evaluation index system for water resources-society-economy-ecological environment,and uses the entropy method to calculate the dynamic weights of specific indicators in each dimension,combines with the TOPSIS method to quantitatively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 14 cities(prefectures)in Gansu Province and classifies the evaluation results,analyzing the advantages and shortcomings of water resources carrying capacity in various regions from the perspectives of space and time,and uses the obstacle degree model to analyze the main obstacle factors that affect the water resources carrying capacity of various regions in Gansu Province in 2018,getting the following conclusions:1.The overall water resources carrying capacity of Gansu Province is on the rise.In 2018,among the 14 cities(prefectures)of Gansu Province,the number of regions at level III increased by one compared to 2009,the number of regions at level V remained unchanged,and the number of regions at level IV decreased by one.2.The level of water resources carrying capacity varies greatly among cities(prefectures)in Gansu Province.In 2009,the spatial difference of water resources carrying capacity of the14 cities(prefectures)of Gansu Province was the minimum value of 0.322 during the evaluation year,and in 2016 it was the maximum value of 0.408.In2018,it was mainly manifested in the large differences between Lanzhou City,Jia yuguan City and Linxia Prefecture.3.The changes in the water resources carrying capacity of the cities(prefectures)in Gansu Province and the restrictive factors are different.The fluctuations of the comprehensive evaluation results of the water resources carrying capacity of each city(state)from 2009 to 2018 were different,and the degree of influence of specific indicators in each dimension was different in different years.In 2018,the obstacles to the improvement of the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu Province are mainly the per capita water resources and water supply in the water resources dimension;the population density and natural population growth rate in the social dimension;the per capita GDP and economic density in the economic dimension;the daily treatment capacity of urban sewage treatment plants in the ecological environment dimension and so on,but the focus of improvement in each region is different.Finally,basing on the results of empirical analysis and the actual development situation,this article proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve the water resources,society,economy and ecological environment in Gansu Province in order to increase the water resources carrying capacity.