| Water resources are an important part of natural resources,and also a supporting condition for regional socio-economic development,and also an important guarantee for the survival of human beings,animals and plants.Therefore,in order to maintain the healthy development of human economy and society,it is necessary to ensure the sustainable use of water resources.The assessment of water resources carrying capacity,is a basic work for rational water use planning and ensuring sustainable utilization of regional water resources.Current water resources carrying capacity evaluation studies mostly focus on administrative areas or river basins with relatively easy access to evaluation indicators.The evaluation index system is relatively complex,and the research on areas with relatively difficult access to some indicators is not deep enough.On the basis of summarizing the basic theory of water resources carrying capacity and referring to the coupling degree model,this paper divides the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity into two systems: support system and pressure system.Two evaluation index systems of magnitude and efficiency are constructed,and a water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on system coupling degree is established,which is suitable for data-deficient areas.Then the load index is introduced to compare and analyze the evaluation results of the model.Finally,taking Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration as the research area,the model is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration region and sub-region,and the applicability of the model is verified.The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)From the point of view of support system and pressure system,combined with the characteristics of coupling degree model,two sets of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index systems of magnitude and efficiency are constructed.Based on coupling degree model,a water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on system coupling degree is established.Finally,the load index is introduced to make a comparative analysis of the evaluation results of the model;(2)Using the grey relational degree model,this paper introduces the calculation method of the influence degree of the evaluation index factors of water resources carrying capacity based on the grey relational degree model,so as to put forward the countermeasures and suggestions;(3)This paper makes a brief analysis of the water resources and socio-economic situation of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration,and evaluates the matching status of water resources and socio-economic development in different zones by Gini coefficient,and the feasibility and necessity of evaluating the water resources carrying capacity of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration are obtained.(4)The evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on system coupling degree is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of region and sub-region in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomerations.In the evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity,the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity evaluation method based on magnitude index and efficiency index combined with coupling degree are consistent.The regional water resources carrying capacity continued to weaken from 2010 to 2016,and rebounded in 2017.However,in the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in sub-region,the evaluation results of the two indicators are different.After validation by load index,it is found that the evaluation results using efficiency indicators are better than those using magnitude indicators.Shangluo City and Baoji City have relatively strong water resources carrying capacity,Yangling District and Xianyang City have relatively weak water resources carrying capacity,and other regions have general water resources carrying capacity.It can be seen that the evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity based on coupling degree model can be applied to the evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity.(5)Based on the evaluation results of efficiency indicators and the grey relational degree model,the influence degree of evaluation indicators of regional and sub-regional water resources carrying capacity was calculated..It is found that the background conditions of water resources are important influencing factors in regional and sub-regional analysis.Therefore,from the point of view of water resources,some suggestions and countermeasures are put forward to enhance the overall carrying capacity of water resources in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration. |
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