Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Total Factor Productivity In Manufacturing Industry

In the past,China relied on labor and resource factors to become a manufacturing power,at the same time,the process of population aging is accelerating.2022,China’s elderly population aged 65 and above accounted for14.1%,has entered a deeply aging society,only 22 years after officially entering the aging society in 2000,rapid population aging makes the "demographic dividend The "demographic dividend" has disappeared.As the lifeblood of national economic development,manufacturing industry can only improve total factor productivity to cope with the negative impact brought by labor shortage and rising labor cost,and promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry.Based on this,this paper focuses on the manufacturing industry and deeply investigates the impact of population aging on total factor productivity in manufacturing industry.First,by collecting and organizing relevant literature,this paper sorts out the theories and literature related to population aging and total factor productivity and manufacturing industry development,and theoretically analyzes the mechanism of population aging affecting total factor productivity in manufacturing industry.Second,analyze the current situation and characteristics of population aging development in China,and then,use DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the total factor productivity and its decomposition index of manufacturing industry in each province,and analyze the measurement results.Thirdly,an econometric model is established to investigate the impact of population aging on total factor productivity in manufacturing industry and the mechanism of action through empirical evidence.Fourth,the research results are summarized and targeted recommendations are proposed.The results of the study find that(1)the relationship between population aging and total factor productivity in manufacturing is "inverted-U shaped" and robust.At this stage,China is mainly in the stage where population aging promotes total factor productivity growth in manufacturing industry.(2)The heterogeneity regression finds that the impact of population aging on manufacturing TFP is influenced by the industrialization process.For regions in the middle and late industrialization,the relationship between population aging and total factor productivity in manufacturing is "inverted-U shaped" and mainly in the positive phase.For regions in the post-industrialization stage,the effect of population aging on total factor productivity in manufacturing is not significant.In addition,the regression results by region show that in the eastern region,the effect of population aging on total factor productivity in manufacturing is not significant,while in the central and western regions,the relationship between population aging and total factor productivity in manufacturing has an "inverted-U shaped" relationship and is still in the positive influence stage.(3)Through the mechanism test,it is found that population aging can indirectly affect total factor productivity in manufacturing industry through affecting human capital,science and technology innovation,and labor supply.