Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On China's Green Total Factor Productivity

At present,the transformation and upgrading of China's economy has entered a new historical stage,and the innovative growth mode with total factor productivity as the core driving force has gradually replaced the traditional extensive growth mode relying on factor input.As the derivation and breakthrough of traditional total factor productivity,green total factor productivity incorporates environmental factors into the calculation of total factor productivity,which is more suitable for studying the green transformation of China's economy.Since reform and opening up,relying on abundant labor supply advantages and demographic dividends,China's economy has achieved rapid growth.However,when people's incomes continue to increase and the quality of life continues to improve,there will be low mortality,low birth rate and extended life expectancy.As early as 2000,China stepped into an aging society.According to historical experience,the increasingly serious problem of aging population will not only significantly reduce the supply of labor,but also have a huge impact on China 's economic development.To influence innovation ability and bring great challenges to innovation-driven green development.In addition,as the number of elderly people continues to increase,the shrinking workforce needs to bear increasing pension and medical costs.The government,enterprises,and families will face tremendous pressure.The increase in social burden will further affect resource allocation and affect green development.Have an indirect impact.At present,many experts and scholars have conducted in-depth research on population aging,but there are few literatures that take into account the resource and environmental factors to study the impact of population aging on green total factor productivity.Especially,both innovation and medical treatment are used as The intermediary factors,and the literatures included in the analysis framework of the effect of population aging on green total factor productivity are very few.First of all,this article combs the theory of population aging and total factor productivity.On this basis,from the perspective of innovation and medical care,the mechanism path of population aging affecting green total factor productivity is derived from theoretical exposition.Second,The status quo of China's population aging and its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics,the calculation of green total factor productivity and regional differences are analyzed;again,the use of static and dynamic panel models is used to empirically test the effect of population aging on green total factor productivity.It also uses the intermediary effect model to examine how the aging population will affect the green total factor productivity under the intermediary role of innovation and medical care,and clarify the two mechanisms of influence between the two.Through the analysis of the above theory and empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:First,in the context of the "new normal" of the economy,population aging has become an unavoidable problem,and the acceleration of the aging process has become an inevitable trend.China's aging population has a large population and a fast aging rate;the population aging peak arrives ahead of time,and there is clearly a phenomenon of "before getting rich before aging";the aging of population between regions shows a large regional difference,and the aging of the population in the eastern coastal areas The level is significantly higher than the central and western regions.Second,the average growth rate of green total factor productivity across the country and the eastern,central,and western regions fluctuates more frequently,without a fixed trend.There are large differences in the green total factor productivity index between eastern China and central and western regions.Different regions need to take different measures to improve China's overall green total factor productivity.Third,overall population aging will significantly inhibit the growth of China 's green TFP,but the impact of population aging on green TFP has large regional differences.The conclusions of the studies in the eastern and central regions are consistent with the overall sample,and all show that there is a negative relationship between population aging and green total factor productivity,but the conclusions in the western region are different,and there is a positive correlation between the two.Fourth,while aging has a direct impact on green TFP,it will also have an indirect impact through the intermediary effects of innovation and healthcare.As far as innovation intermediaries and medical intermediaries are concerned,overall,the aging population will further reduce green total factor productivity through these two media.Based on the above analysis,this article believes that the impact of population aging on green total factor productivity should be viewed rationally,while reducing its negative effects while enhancing its positive effects,and at the same time,it puts forward some policy suggestions for promoting green and sustainable economic growth.