Influence Of Population Aging On Total Factor Productivity

With the continuous changes in the population structure,the aging of the population has become an important factor affecting the economic development of various countries.As a populous country in the world,China's aging population continues to intensify and its impact on the economy is even more pronounced.The age structure of the population has an important impact on the level of human capital and further exerts a major influence on the regional total factor productivity.The increasing aging of the population has led to unsustainable productivity and has severely affected the improvement of China's total factor productivity.In the context of the economy entering the new normal,It is necessary to make an empirical analysis of the impact of population aging in China on total factor productivity,Exploring the path of population aging affecting total factor productivity,This will provide a theoretical basis for promoting the improvement of total factor productivity and sustained economic growth in China.First,this paper uses panel data from 2001 to 2015 in 30 provinces across the country,Using real GDP as output indicator and taking the stock of physical capital in each region and the number of employees as input indicators,Using the DEA-Malmquist method,the total factor productivity of each province from 2001 to 2015 was calculated.Next,Using the population aging and measured total factor productivity data,the spatial distribution analysis,spatial dependence global Moran's I test,and spatial correlation local analysis were used to analyze the relationship between the two.It is found that the aging of the population may have an impact on total factor productivity,and it is necessary to further verify its specific impact path and role through empirical tests.Next,this paper establish a panel data model and introduce the ratio of the three industrial added value to the regional GDP,the government efficiency,the ratio of the total import and export volume to the regional GDP,and the labor supply as a control variable,and using these control variables to analyze the four effects and paths that affect the total factor productivity of population aging.The regression results show that population aging has a significant dual impact on TFP growth: On the one hand,population aging has hindered the growth of total factor productivity through changes in the labor force;on the other hand,the aging of the population has stimulated the increase in production improvement through the burden of the labor force,thus promoting the improvement of all-round productivity.From the perspective of specific impacts:(1)The aging of the population has a positive effect on the improvement of total factor productivity in the country,East,Central and West regions through industrial structure effects,market opening effects,and labor supply effects;(2)The aging of the population has a negative impact on the level of total factor productivity in the eastern region through institutional effects,and has a positive impact on the overall factor productivity level of the whole and the central and western regions.